Okay ladies and gentlemen, it is once again that time of year for me to break out the Hensley Rating System for the Kentucky HS football playoffs.

 

The rating is simple to explain. I combine the Cantrall Rating from the Lexington Herald-Leader and the Lit Rating from the Louisville Courier-Journal and divide that by two (since there is just two factors at question) to get the average. That average is the HRS.

 

Over the last few seasons, I have done a post-season version of the HRS with predictions of every game and have been fairly successful. Now most first round games will be easy to predict, but others are not. I have been known from time to time to be exactly correct in how close a game will be while others have been way off.

 

Disclaimer: Please remember that this is NOT an official BGP poll nor should these predictions be used for any type of gambling. This is just one person having WAY TOO MUCH free time and loving to crunch numbers. Also, please don’t think that this is exactly how I think the games will go. There are some games throughout the six classes that I think will go a different way than the HRS is predicting.

 

To get the margin at which one team is predicted to win by, take the home team’s HRS and add six points for home field advantage and then subtract the visiting team’s HRS. If the number is positive, the home team should win by that much, and if it is negative, the visiting team should win by that much.

 

If this is still confusing, please ask me to explain better in a constructive manner.

 

So with all of this out of the way, here is the HRS for Class 4A and the HRS predictions:

 

 

Class 4A

117.25 Highlands

105.45 Covington Catholic

97.45 Boyle County

96.95 Lexington Catholic

91.95 Madisonville-North Hopkins

88.65 Russell County

87.40 Collins

87.30 Knox Central

87.15 Franklin-Simpson

87.00 Ashland Blazer

85.65 Johnson Central

83.60 Rockcastle County

82.75 Lone Oak

78.40 North Oldham

73.65 Allen County-Scottsville

73.20 Owensboro

70.75 Western

66.80 Holmes

66.10 Rowan County

65.35 Warren East

63.35 Doss

63.00 Marion County

62.90 Mercer County

54.15 Spencer County

53.10 Fairdale

52.85 Clay County

50.75 Harrison County

50.40 Valley

49.45 Calloway County

47.10 Boyd County

46.05 Moore

34.85 Taylor County

31.05 Greenup County

28.80 Waggener

27.75 Pendleton County

24.00 Hopkins County Central

18.05 Breckinridge County

13.75 Atherton

 

 

Region 1

Breckinridge County (1-9) at Lone Oak (8-2) - LO by 70.7

Owensboro (4-6) at Warren East (7-3) - OHS by 1.85

Allen County-Scottsville (4-6) at Madisonville-North Hopkins (8-2) - MNH by 24.3

Calloway County (3-7) at Franklin-Simpson (9-1) - F-S by 33.7

 

Region 2

Moore (4-6) at Collins (8-2) - MLC by 47.35

Spencer County (4-6) at Doss (2-8) - DHS by 15.2

Valley (4-6) at North Oldham (8-2) - NO by 34

Waggener (2-8) at Western (5-5) - Western by 57.95

Region 3

Clay County (1-9) at Lexington Catholic (8-2) - LC by 50.1

Mercer County (4-6) at Russell County (9-1) - RC by 29.75

Knox Central (6-3) at Boyle County (7-3) - BC by 16.15

Marion County (3-7) at Rockcastle County (8-2) - Rock by 26.6

Region 4

Boyd County (5-5) at Highlands (10-0) - HHS by 76.15

Holmes (4-6) at Johnson Central (8-2) - JC by 24.85

Rowan County (8-2) at Covington Catholic (7-2) - CCH by 45.35

Harrison County (2-8) at Ashland Blazer (8-2) - AB by 42.25

One game in single digits. Sad

and I dont think it will be that close. WEast in my opinion will win by 2 TD's.

District 6 continues to confuse and be a mystery. Rockcastle wins the district after a three way tie but is rated below Russell County and Knox Central. Looks like the wrong team won the district but for the right reason. I am looking forward to seeing what district 6 is made of. Are they overrated, underrated or just what we expect? I can't wait. I am so glad the playoffs are here.

Like I was saying. LOL. Nevermind, I was assuming Warren East was going to hold on to the football. Owensboro took advantage of mistake after mistake.