West Jessamine was ahead 37-30 with 2:00 left in the 3rd. Mercer closed out 3rd quarter on a 13-0 run with a 28 footer by Aaron Lee at the buzzer with a hand in his face. They started off the 4th with another 3 pointer to cap off a 16-0 run to make it 46-37 and they never looked back after that.

 

West Jessamine was a better team with Donaldson on the court. Granted Mercer was up about 8-10 points when he came out but why did he come out? Mercer can't stop anything down low and he blocked 4-5 shots and cleaned the glass with ease. What is the story on Donaldson?

 

 

Mercer and East Jessamine meet in the finals on Friday.

I wouldn't be surprised to see Mercer County win the 12th region.

 

I think that it is suffice to say that Pulaski County and Wayne County have a better chance at winning it than Mercer, but I get the sense that I see more hope in Mercer than many others do. A lengthy, detailed explanation as to why I feel this way is below.

 

 

I took Pulaski County in the BGP regional contest based on performance in big time games, such as: only losing to Ballard by 9 (and then coming back the next day after the game and beating Knox Central by 1 in a game where they seemed primed for a letdown), only losing to a very underrated Moore squad by only 15 (three days after the Ballard game, and playing their 4th game in as many days), beating another team who is, in my opinion, underrated in topping Madison Central by 12, and finally, beating Wayne Co. at Wayne by 1.

 

I think that Wayne County has separated themselves from the rest of the field (aside from Pulaski Co) based on their being a well-coached, fundamentally sound team led by two senior stars. I think that their discipline, style of play, and senior leadership makes them a really tough out in tournament-style formats. This is only strengthened by the fact that their coaching staff (to the best of my knowledge) would likely be given an edge due to their credentials/experience in this type atmosphere, which becomes even more of a factor when considering the shorter turnaround and prep times that will come as play advances.

 

These assertions are supported by the fact that Wayne has lost only three games . Their worst loss of this trio was their first loss, an 83-64 decision to Dyer County, TN on 12/21/10 during a Christmas tournament at McCreary Central. To put this loss in perspective, Dyer Co. has recently split with Brighton (who is ranked #21 in TN by at least one website--http://www.coacht.com/tennessee/inside/team.cfm?schoolid=120&sportid=3&seasonid=93 ). Further, Dyer finished last season at 27-4 after being eliminated from during the Class AAA Sectionals after losing 65-60 to national power White Station (Memphis), which was led by current Memphis freshman Joe Jackson. After beating Dyer, White Station moved on to the state tournament, where they won two more games handily before being defeated by Memphis Melrose (another nationally recognized program) by a score of 75-70. Aside from this, Wayne lost a home game to Pulaski on 1/21 by 1 point (56-57), and a 2/18 contest to Lexington Catholic (on Catholic’s senior night) by a score of 64-56.

 

For me, the differentiating factor in choosing between Pulaski and Wayne was the fact that arguably Wayne’s biggest in-state win was a 71-61 road victory over Clay County on 2/1. I know Pulaski had a few losses late in the season that didn’t look great on paper, but it was my understanding that these came without their coach and/or at least one key player on which they depend, and it was expected that all should be fine for tournament time.

 

 

With this said, I would still rate the probability of each team winning the region as follows: Pulaski – 40%, or 2:5, Wayne – 40%, or 2:5, and Mercer – 20%, or 1:5.

 

 

The reasons why I give Mercer a shot are as follows:

 

1. Upsets happen during tournament time, and many teams chances of advancing through the regional tournament can be directly linked to their draw. Mercer beat West Jessamine 63-50 @ West Jessamine during the opening round of district play. Should Mercer beat East Jessamine in the 46th district final (the two have split on the year), they will have created a favorable position considering that, at worst, they could only draw in a bracket with either Pulaski OR Wayne and be guaranteed to meet them in the semis (assuming they win their districts as well). In this scenario, either Pulaski OR Wayne would have to be in the opposite bracket with East Jessamine (who is 22-6 on the year and has a record indicative of a team who’d be a tough out and/or dangerous sleeper to pull off an upset).

 

Assuming that the aforementioned assumption about the district winners stays in tact, the best case scenario for Mercer would see them getting the winner of the 45th (Lincoln Co/Boyle Co/Danville/Garrard Co) on their side of the regional bracket. This would mean that Mercer could see either Rockcastle Co or Casey Co in the first round of the regional, then face the winner of Southwestern/45th district Champion game (which is much more of an even match-up). Under this premise, the other side of the bracket would see opening round match-ups which was necessarily selected from one of the following three pairings: Wayne vs. Pulaski, East Jess vs. Wayne, OR Pulaski vs. East Jess.

 

 

2. Upon eliminating West Jess, Mercer County became the team who’d made the deepest run in last year’s post-season. Mercer started off the year returning Clay Cinnamon, who led the team in scoring last year (17.1 PPG), as well as starters Aaron Lee (9.6 PPG) and Austin Seagraves. Coming into last season, Cats Pause also listed then-junior-to-be Mattthew Honchel as a likely starter. Overall, Mercer returned eight seniors, and their experiences/hunger from last year could be huge, especially against a youthful team like Pulaski Co.

 

 

3. Since Christmas, Mercer has seen it's own share of quality opponents and fared decently well. Games that come to mind here include: a 2/15 win over North Hardin (79-72), a 2/1 loss to Woodford County (69-68), a 1/18 win over Montgomery Co (85-57), a 1/15 win over Lexington Christian (67-62), a 1/10 loss at Madison Central (78-88) and a run through the always tough field of the Republic Bank Classic at Lexington Catholic that saw a 72-63 win over Seneca, a 60-76 loss to Bowling Green, a 88-70 win over Elliott Co, and a 69-71 loss to Covington Catholic.

 

 

4. Mercer entered the season with a target on their back due to the way they closed the 2009-2010 season. This probably had an adverse effect on the way they’ve performed this year. Now, however, it would seem that some of that pressure has dissipated, meaning that they are a looser team whose playing like they have nothing left to lose. Throw some recent confidence from a relatively strong finish to the season and an opening round win over district rival West Jess on top of a few breaks here and there, and the confidence/momentum behind this team should only continue to grow.

 

5. Like both Pulaski and Wayne, Mercer is a guard-oriented team, meaning that their game planning, style of play, etc. will likely not have to undergo drastic changes in order to beat either of them. From all I can gather about Cinnamon, he can be counted on to get his points night in and night out. What’s more encouraging for Titans fans, however, is that in their victory over West Jessamine, Seawell and Lee totaled 27 and 25 points respectively. While both are unlikely to match this output on a nightly basis, it shows that players other than Cinnamon are capable of elevating their games enough to win on a given night.

Mercer has a nice team but their lack of any inside presence on offense and defense worries me and while Wayne and Pulaski are guard oriented they can play efficiently in the paint if needed.

 

If Boyle can't go to Rupp then I would like to see Mercer go to Rupp.

What the heights, sizes, class, positions for the primary players for Wayne, Pulaski, Mercer, and East Jess? Admittedly, I don't know a great deal about these teams a whole.