Okay ladies and gentlemen, you got a little taste of the Hensley Rating System towards the end of the regular season and now it is time to break out the HRS predictions for the 2008 postseason.

 

The rating is simple to explain. I combine the Cantral Rating from the Lexington Herald-Leader and the Lit Rating from the Louisville Courier-Journal and divide that by two (since there is just two factors at question) to get the average. That average is the HRS.

 

Over the last couple of seasons, I have done a postseason version of the HRS with predictions of every game and have been fairly successful. Now, most first round games will be easy to predict but others are not. I have been known from time to time to be exactly correct in how close a game will be while others have been way off.

 

Disclaimer: Please remember that this is NOT an official BGP poll nor should these predictions be used for any type of gambling. This is just one person having WAY TOO MUCH free time and loving to crunch numbers. Also, please don’t think that this is exactly how I think the games will go. There are some games throughout the six classes that I think will go a different way than the HRS is predicting.

 

To get the margin at which one team is predicted to win by, take the home team’s HRS and add six points for home field advantage and then subtract the visiting team’s HRS. If the number is positive, the home team should win by that much, and if it is negative, the visiting team should win by that much.

 

If this is still confusing, please ask me to explain better in a constructive manner.

 

So with all of this out of the way, here is the HRS for Class 1A entirely and the HRS predictions:

91.25 Lexington Christian

77.70 Mayfield

75.85 Beechwood

67.15 Crittenden County

66.90 Hazard

65.45 Frankfort

64.40 Bellevue

56.25 Raceland

53.35 Holy Cross (Louisville)

52.25 Pikeville

51.45 Fairview

47.80 Bethlehem

47.10 Allen Central

44.55 Campbellsville

43.75 Williamsburg

42.35 Harlan

41.55 Ballard Memorial

37.50 Eminence

36.50 Lynn Camp

35.00 Pineville

32.65 Kentucky Country Day

32.05 Trimble County

31.65 Berea

30.60 Gallatin County

30.10 Nicholas County

28.65 Ludlow

28.55 Bishop Brossart

27.80 Fulton County

25.45 Dayton

24.45 Paintsville

24.40 Paris

21.80 Walton-Verona

19.45 Fulton City

19.05 Clinton County

14.65 Betsy Layne

13.55 Phelps

12.00 Caverna

9.70 South Floyd

8.80 Bracken County

7.20 Jenkins

 

 

 

Region 1

(4) Caverna @ (1) Mayfield = MHS by 71.7

(3) Ballard Memorial @ (2) Bethlehem = BHS by 12.25

(4) Fulton City @ (1) Lou. Holy Cross = HC by 39.9

(3) Ky. Country Day @ (2) Crittenden Co. = CC by 39.5

Region 2

(4) Trimble Co. @ (1) Beechwood - BHS by 48.8

(3) Ludlow @ (2) Eminence - EHS by 14.85

(4) Bishop Brossart @ (1) Frankfort - FHS by 42.9

(3) Gallatin Co. @ (2) Bellevure - BHS by 39.8

Region 3

(4) Berea @ (1) Lexington Christian - LCA by 65.6

(3) Fairview @ (2) Williamsburg - FHS by 1.7

(4) Nicholas Co. @ (1) Campbellsville - CHS by 20.45

(3) Lynn Camp @ (2) Raceland - RHS by 25.75

Region 4

(4) Phelps @ (1) Hazard - HHS by 59.35

(3) Pineville @ (2) Allen Central - AC by 18.1

(4) Jenkins @ (1) Pikeville - PHS by 51.05

(3) Paintsville @ (2) Harlan - HHS by 23.9

Well done. :thumb:

 

Fairview @ Williamsburg looks to be exciting.

Great job.

Very nice and pretty accurate looking. The one exception that I see is Ludlow vs. Emminence. I expect Ludlow to win that one and they are a -14.85 in the system.

Very nice and pretty accurate looking. The one exception that I see is Ludlow vs. Emminence. I expect Ludlow to win that one and they are a -14.85 in the system.

 

 

Their ratings are 8.85 apart but since Eminence is the host school, they get an additional 6 points in my system for home-field advantage.