Okay ladies and gentlemen, you got a little taste of the Hensley Rating System towards the end of the regular season and now it is time to break out the HRS predictions for the 2008 postseason.

 

The rating is simple to explain. I combine the Cantral Rating from the Lexington Herald-Leader and the Lit Rating from the Louisville Courier-Journal and divide that by two (since there is just two factors at question) to get the average. That average is the HRS.

 

Over the last couple of seasons, I have done a post-season version of the HRS with predictions of every game and have been fairly successful. Now most first round games will be easy to predict but others are not. I have been known from time to time to be exactly correct in how close a game will be while others have been way off.

 

Disclaimer: Please remember that this is NOT an official BGP poll nor should these predictions be used for any type of gambling. This is just one person having WAY TOO MUCH free time and loving to crunch numbers. Also, please don’t think that this is exactly how I think the games will go. There are some games throughout the six classes that I think will go a different way than the HRS is predicting.

 

To get the margin at which one team is predicted to win by, take the home team’s HRS and add six points for home field advantage and then subtract the visiting team’s HRS. If the number is positive, the home team should win by that much, and if it is negative, the visiting team should win by that much.

 

If this is still confusing, please ask me to explain better in a constructive manner.

 

So with all of this out of the way, here is the HRS for Class 3A entirely and the HRS predictions:

 

 

 

Central 90.80

Belfry 86.30

Breathitt County 79.40

Elizabethtown 74.00

Mason County 69.70

Russell 65.80

Sheldon Clark 65.10

North Oldham 63.95

Estill County 62.90

Western Hills 62.40

Harlan County 61.85

Russellville 60.80

Paducah Tilghman 60.70

Somerset 60.40

Henry County 60.05

Butler County 56.75

Wayne County 56.65

Union County 56.50

Taylor County 52.60

Shawnee 51.20

Edmonson County 51.05

Spencer County 50.10

Garrard County 46.40

Muhlenberg South 45.85

East Carter 39.85

McLean County 38.75

Powell County 37.70

Pike County Central 37.30

Adair County 35.85

Moore 33.20

Fleming County 32.35

Hart County 31.95

West Carter 30.00

East Ridge 28.70

Webster County 25.35

Magoffin County 22.25

Casey County 19.35

Jackson County 15.85

Lewis County 15.05

 

 

 

Region 1

Adair County at Union County – Union by 26.65

Muhlenburg South at Butler County – Butler by 16.9

Webster County at Russellville – R’ville by 41.45

Edmonson County at McLean County – EC by 6.3

 

Region 2

Henry County at Central – Central by 36.75

Shawnee at Spencer County – SC by 4.9

Moore at North Oldham – North by 36.75

Western Hills at Elizabethtown – E’town by 17.6

 

Region 3

Powell County at Taylor County – TC by 20.9

Somerset at Estill County – EC by 8.5

Garrard County at Breathitt County – BC by 39

Harlan County at Wayne County – WC by 0.8

 

Region 4

Magoffin County at Mason County – Mason by 53.45

East Carter at Sheldon Clark – SC by 42.4

West Carter at Belfry – Belfry by 62.3

Pike County Central at Russell – Russell by 34.5

Okay ladies and gentlemen, you got a little taste of the Hensley Rating System towards the end of the regular season and now it is time to break out the HRS predictions for the 2008 postseason.

 

The rating is simple to explain. I combine the Cantral Rating from the Lexington Herald-Leader and the Lit Rating from the Louisville Courier-Journal and divide that by two (since there is just two factors at question) to get the average. That average is the HRS.

 

Over the last couple of seasons, I have done a post-season version of the HRS with predictions of every game and have been fairly successful. Now most first round games will be easy to predict but others are not. I have been known from time to time to be exactly correct in how close a game will be while others have been way off.

 

Disclaimer: Please remember that this is NOT an official BGP poll nor should these predictions be used for any type of gambling. This is just one person having WAY TOO MUCH free time and loving to crunch numbers. Also, please don’t think that this is exactly how I think the games will go. There are some games throughout the six classes that I think will go a different way than the HRS is predicting.

 

To get the margin at which one team is predicted to win by, take the home team’s HRS and add six points for home field advantage and then subtract the visiting team’s HRS. If the number is positive, the home team should win by that much, and if it is negative, the visiting team should win by that much.

 

If this is still confusing, please ask me to explain better in a constructive manner.

 

So with all of this out of the way, here is the HRS for Class 3A entirely and the HRS predictions:

 

 

 

Central 90.80

Belfry 86.30

Breathitt County 79.40

Elizabethtown 74.00

Mason County 69.70

Russell 65.80

Sheldon Clark 65.10

North Oldham 63.95

Estill County 62.90

Western Hills 62.40

Harlan County 61.85

Russellville 60.80

Paducah Tilghman 60.70

Somerset 60.40

Henry County 60.05

Butler County 56.75

Wayne County 56.65

Union County 56.50

Taylor County 52.60

Shawnee 51.20

Edmonson County 51.05

Spencer County 50.10

Garrard County 46.40

Muhlenberg South 45.85

East Carter 39.85

McLean County 38.75

Powell County 37.70

Pike County Central 37.30

Adair County 35.85

Moore 33.20

Fleming County 32.35

Hart County 31.95

West Carter 30.00

East Ridge 28.70

Webster County 25.35

Magoffin County 22.25

Casey County 19.35

Jackson County 15.85

Lewis County 15.05

 

 

 

Region 1

Adair County at Union County – Union by 26.65

Muhlenburg South at Butler County – Butler by 16.9

Webster County at Russellville – R’ville by 41.45

Edmonson County at McLean County – EC by 6.3

 

Region 2

Henry County at Central – Central by 36.75

Shawnee at Spencer County – SC by 4.9

Moore at North Oldham – North by 36.75

Western Hills at Elizabethtown – E’town by 17.6

 

Region 3

Powell County at Taylor County – TC by 20.9

Somerset at Estill County – EC by 8.5

Garrard County at Breathitt County – BC by 39

Harlan County at Wayne County – WC by 0.8

 

Region 4

Magoffin County at Mason County – Mason by 53.45

East Carter at Sheldon Clark – SC by 42.4

West Carter at Belfry – Belfry by 62.3

Pike County Central at Russell – Russell by 34.5

Just out of curiosity, why do you not factor in the AP polls? I personally think Cantrall's ratings are garbage, places way too much emphasis on school size and the name on the jersey instead of on-field performance.

Can't wait to see Mason kick ther .45 xtra point. LOL

Just out of curiosity, why do you not factor in the AP polls? I personally think Cantrall's ratings are garbage, places way too much emphasis on school size and the name on the jersey instead of on-field performance.

 

The AP poll only gives points toward just a handful of teams and I wanted something that gave points towards all of the teams. If I had known of how to get the numbers from the Massey Ratings when I had originally started to do this stuff a couple years ago, I would be factoring that in though BUT since I have only been using the Lit and Cantral Ratings, that is the way I'm going to keep doing it.

ttt