Okay ladies and gentlemen, you got a little taste of the Hensley Rating System towards the end of the regular season and now it is time to break out the HRS predictions for the 2008 postseason.

 

The rating is simple to explain. I combine the Cantral Rating from the Lexington Herald-Leader and the Lit Rating from the Louisville Courier-Journal and divide that by two (since there is just two factors at question) to get the average. That average is the HRS.

 

Over the last couple of seasons, I have done a post-season version of the HRS with predictions of every game and have been fairly successful. Now most first round games will be easy to predict but others are not. I have been known from time to time to be exactly correct in how close a game will be while others have been way off.

 

Disclaimer: Please remember that this is NOT an official BGP poll nor should these predictions be used for any type of gambling. This is just one person having WAY TOO MUCH free time and loving to crunch numbers. Also, please don’t think that this is exactly how I think the games will go. There are some games throughout the six classes that I think will go a different way than the HRS is predicting.

 

To get the margin at which one team is predicted to win by, take the home team’s HRS and add six points for home field advantage and then subtract the visiting team’s HRS. If the number is positive, the home team should win by that much, and if it is negative, the visiting team should win by that much.

 

If this is still confusing, please ask me to explain better in a constructive manner.

 

So with all of this out of the way, here is the HRS for Class 4A entirely and the HRS predictions:

 

 

 

Boyle County 103.65

Bell County 100.15

Lexington Catholic 97.25

Marion County 79.20

Franklin-Simpson 79.10

Lone Oak 79.05

Bullitt East 77.85

Valley 77.35

Hopkins County Central 76.55

Knox Central 75.70

Rockcastle County 74.00

North Bullitt 73.55

Calloway County 73.30

Fairdale 72.85

Allen County-Scottsville 70.70

Warren East 69.95

Western 64.65

Franklin County 63.70

Larue County 61.15

Russell County 58.35

Harrison County 56.95

Boyd County 55.80

East Jessamine 53.65

West Jessamine 49.00

Greenup County 43.45

Lawrence County 40.45

Rowan County 38.90

Logan County 37.70

Bourbon County 36.50

Madison Southern 35.70

McCreary Central 32.65

Pendleton County 27.65

Muhlenberg North 26.40

Breckinridge County 22.50

Atherton 16.90

 

 

 

Region 1

Russell County at Calloway County – CC by 20.95

Hopkins County Central at Franklin-Simpson – F-S by 8.55

Muhlenberg North at Allen County-Scottsville – ACS by 50.3

Warren East at Lone Oak – LO by 15.1

 

Region 2

Larue County at Valley – Valley by 22.2

Western at North Bullitt – North by 14.9

Atherton at Bullitt East – East by 66.95

Marion County at Fairdale – Marion by 0.35

 

Region 3

West Jessamine at Harrison County – Harrison by 13.95

Bourbon County at Lexington Catholic – LexCath by 66.75

Pendleton County at Boyle County – Boyle by 82

East Jessamione at Franklin County – Franklin by 16.05

 

Region 4

Lawrence County at Bell County – Bell by 65.7

Rockcastle County at Greenup County – Rock by 24.55

McCreary Central at Boyd County – Boyd by 29.15

Rowan County at Knox Central – KC by 42.8

That point spread on Boyle/Pendleton might hold!

This is pretty cool.

ttt

You were 16 for 16 in 4A. Very Impressive. What about the 2nd round now?

I'll have the second round posted sometime around Tuesday or Wednesday. I'll have to wait until the Lit and Cantrall Ratings are posted for this week.