Okay ladies and gentlemen, you got a little taste of the Hensley Rating System towards the end of the regular season and now it is time to break out the HRS predictions for the 2008 postseason.

 

The rating is simple to explain. I combine the Cantral Rating from the Lexington Herald-Leader and the Lit Rating from the Louisville Courier-Journal and divide that by two (since there is just two factors at question) to get the average. That average is the HRS.

 

Over the last couple of seasons, I have done a post-season version of the HRS with predictions of every game and have been fairly successful. Now most first round games will be easy to predict but others are not. I have been known from time to time to be exactly correct in how close a game will be while others have been way off.

 

Disclaimer: Please remember that this is NOT an official BGP poll nor should these predictions be used for any type of gambling. This is just one person having WAY TOO MUCH free time and loving to crunch numbers. Also, please don’t think that this is exactly how I think the games will go. There are some games throughout the six classes that I think will go a different way than the HRS is predicting.

To get the margin at which one team is predicted to win by, take the home team’s HRS and add six points for home field advantage and then subtract the visiting team’s HRS. If the number is positive, the home team should win by that much, and if it is negative, the visiting team should win by that much.

 

If this is still confusing, please ask me to explain better in a constructive manner.

 

So with all of this out of the way, here is the HRS for Class 5A entirely and the HRS predictions:

 

 

 

Highlands 117.10

Bowling Green 98.55

Owensboro 97.20

Johnson Central 94.50

John Hardin 93.75

Christian County 92.20

Doss 90.35

Oldham County 90.10

Dixie Heights 89.90

Bryan Station 88.65

Covington Catholic 86.30

Mercer County 85.15

Whitley County 85.15

Hopkinsville 83.95

Ashland Blazer 80.10

Warren Central 74.45

Anderson County 73.75

Woodford County 73.40

Letcher County Central 73.25

Southwestern 72.60

South Laurel 70.75

Pulaski County 69.45

Grayson County 62.30

Clay County 61.70

Scott 61.20

Montgomery County 60.25

North Laurel 58.75

Grant County 58.25

Jeffersontown 56.90

Holmes 56.40

Lincoln County 54.35

Perry County Central 53.95

Ohio County 46.80

South Oldham 43.05

Barren County 41.50

Iroquois 37.90

Waggener 33.95

 

 

 

Region 1

Barren County at Christian County – CC by 56.7

Hopkinsville at Grayson County – Hoptown by 15.65

Ohio County at Bowling Green – BG by 57.75

Warren Central at Owensboro – OHS by 28.75

 

Region 2

Jeffersontown at Doss – Doss by 39.45

Iroquois at Anderson County – AC by 41.85

Waggener at Oldham County – OC by 62.15

Grant County at John Hardin – JH by 41.5

 

Region 3

Bryan Station at Highlands – HHS by 34.45

Dixie Heights at Ashland Blazer – DH by 3.8

Holmes at Johnson Central – JC by 44.1

Woodford County at Covington Catholic – CovCath by 18.9

 

Region 4

Perry County Central at Mercer County – MC by 37.2

Southwestern at Letcher County Central – LCC by 6.65

South Laurel at Whitley County – WC by 20.4

Clay County at Pulaski County – PC by 13.75

And yes I do realize that there was a game that was played last night between J'town and Doss. If I'm not mistaken, Doss won by something like 30 points so I wasn't too far off.

Looks pretty good to me. First region should play out about like that, with the only game that raises some question is the spread on the Warren Central / Owensboro game. I think Owensboro will get them, but not by that much.

ttt

 

Looks like the system didn't predic the HHS game

ttt

 

Looks like the system didn't predict the HHS game

 

...and that's why we play the games!

...and that's why we play the games!

 

:thumb: Yes sir!

ttt

 

Looks like the system didn't predic the HHS game

 

I believe about 95% of Kentucky didnt predict that game.