Statewide Rankings: Week 10

[DragonFire]

-A bit lighter this week as we only have five outlets that released ranks.  Tried to wait on them!

Starting with the Elite 16 rankings as always:

1. Covington Catholic [12 First Place Votes]
2. St. X [2]
3. Madison Central
4. Daviess County [2]
5. George Rogers Clark
6. Warren Central
7. Jeffersontown
8. North Laurel
9. Frederick Douglass
10. Male
11. North Oldham
12. Ballard
13. McCracken County
14. Highlands
15. Bryan Station
16. Butler
17. Boyd County
18. Caverna
19. Lexington Catholic
20. Eastern
21. Grayson County
T-22. Covington Holy Cross
T-22. Manual
24. Ashland
T-25. Pikeville
T-25. South Oldham

 

[DragonFire]

-Back after a one week break on account of snow knocking out the games and delaying many/most rankings!

-Earlier in the near Next Gen Prospects accidentally had 26 teams in their rankings after they'd left out a team and had to adjust.  This time, they've got only 24 teams, as they totally skipped over 19.  For purposes of my analysis, I'm bumping each team below that up one, but yikes.

-Both Nations Elite and Martin Media released rankings during the snow week when there was nothing new to go on, and failed to release them for this week.

-Kentucky High School Sports Zone gave up on Montgomery County right when they finally got interesting.  An odd choice!

-Madison Central's loss to Woodford County back on 1/31 forced a change at the top, not the loss to Lexington Catholic this week which may nudge them down a little bit in some ranks next week - although they'll have a chance to negate that when they visit North Laurel. Their (literal) loss is Covington Catholic's gain, as they ascend to #1 in four of the five polls, becoming our on-average #1.  Daviess County was #1 in the Next Gen Prospects poll, and has picked up a couple of supporters in the Elite 16 media poll. Covington Catholic was #2 in that outlet's ranks.

-Four teams were consensus top five choices, as Covington Catholic and Daviess County were joined by Madison Central and St. X.  It's the lowest average rank yet for St. X (4th) as the losses against top competition have slowly mounted.  They're just 4-3 overall since taking the LIT crown back on January 17th, with losses now to North Oldham, Ballard, and Christian Academy-Louisville.  George Rogers Clark appeared in the top five in two outlets, as did Jeffersontown.  North Laurel climbed into the top five of one.

-In all, six teams were rated in the top ten of every poll.  In addition to the consensus top 4, George Rogers Clark and Warren Central (barely) were in every single top ten.  Jeffersontown, North Oldham, and Ballard were each left out of the top ten by one poll, while North Laurel was left out of two.  14 teams appeared in at least one top ten.

-McCracken County remains the most divisive team in the ranks, as KSR elevated them all the way to 7th, three others had them between 11-13, and then noted McCracken unbelievers Kentucky High School Sports Zone had them 24th.  Their 17 spot disparity is by far the most, with only Male (high of 7 in NextGen's rankings and low of 18 in KYHSZ) and Lexington Catholic (high of 14 in KYHSZ and low of 24 in two outlets) having double digit differences between high and low.  The latter two might be areas where KYHSZ is ahead of the curve, for once, as Male seems to be sliding in a way not accurately reflected in other ranks having lost four of five, and LexCath knocked off Madison Central on Monday (albeit after dropping a game to Trinity last Friday). 

-Speaking of LexCath, their ranking from NextGen still seems a little strange.  They were 13th, then unranked, then 24th in the last several rankings.  I still don't know what they could have done to be 13th three weeks ago, but I would certainly think they should nudge a bit higher now that they've grabbed some elite wins.  

-The recruiting services (NextUp Recruits, Next Gen Prospects) don't believe in Bryan Station.  The other three outlets this week have the Defenders no lower than 17th, but those two don't rank them at all.  Both had them ranked two weeks ago, and they've gone 3-1 since, but the nine point loss to Frederick Douglass seemingly was enough to knock them from the ranks.

-Christian Academy-Louisville is another polarizing one, as both the Elite 16 media rankings and Kentucky High School Sports Zone did not include them in their ranks, while they were no lower than 17th in the other three ratings.  That probably is going to change next week if they're paying attention, as CAL has now won 7 of 8, with the lone loss coming to Ballard, and added a top win with their victory over St. X this week.  

-Henderson County and North Hardin make their rankings debuts this week, with Henderson County climbing to #23 in Kentucky High School Sports Zone's rankings, and North Hardin tapped for 25th by NextUp Recruits.  That brings the total teams to have been ranked in the top 25 by at least one outlet this year to 50.  Henderson County has a slate of four games this week to try to maintain that positioning, and have already won the first two.  Their game at home against Louisville Trinity is likely to be the test.  North Hardin will have ample opportunity as well, visiting Manual, hosting Central Hardin, and then visiting Warren Central on three consecutive days.

-Both Pikeville and South Oldham return after short absences.  Pikeville missed only a single week of rankings while South Oldham missed the last two.

-Marshall County, Martin County, Montgomery County, Newport, and Russell all exit the ranks.  It really does crack me up - of all times to drop MoCo....

-We had seven unicorns this week (teams rated in only a single poll).  Clinton County (KYHSZ 22), Covington Holy Cross (Elite 16 22), Henderson County (KYHSZ 23), Johnson Central (KYHSZ 25), North Hardin (NUR 25), South Oldham (Elite 16 25), and Seneca (KSR 25).  Seneca becomes the first unicorn all year for KSR, which always found a consensus for their ranks.  Seneca was ranked by two outlets two weeks ago that weren't even KSR.  In the time since they went 5-1, with only a two point loss to North Oldham against them, and they beat Male who all of them had ranked.  Weird to drop them from the ranks over that and it left KSR on an island, at last. 

-There were three reverse unicorns (rated in all but one poll) - Highlands (NUR), Lyon County (Elite 16), and Grayson County (KYHSZ) all just missed consensus. 

-17 teams were consensus ranked this week:

Covington Catholic
Daviess County
Madison Central
St. X
George Rogers Clark
Jeffersontown
Ballard
Warren Central
North Laurel
North Oldham
Frederick Douglass
Butler
Male
McCracken County
Boyd County
Ashland
Lexington Catholic

-Checking in on the Massey Ratings, Covington Catholic fell to third in defense after leading rating, power, offense, and defense two weeks ago.  Slackers.

-Nine of the top ten in the Massey Ratings match the average top ten rank of our media poll consensus.  The media outlets are higher on North Laurel, with them tying for 9th on average, while they check in at just 13th in the Massey.  By contrast, the Massey has Frederick Douglass with a rank of nine, while they rate just outside the top ten at 11th in the media consensus.  But the consensus and Massey have very little disagreement.  

-Two solid outliers have emerged in the Massey Ratings, as both Great Crossing (20) and Trinity (21) are in their top 25.  No outlet has ranked Trinity at all this year, while Great Crossing hasn't garnered a ranking in any outlet since December 15th, and that was DragonFire favorite KYHSZ having them just 21.  Great Crossing has won five in a row, but none of them have been over a team of particular strength.  I would think by now their state title run would have washed out any advantages for this year.  Trinity did pick up two solid wins in knocking off Eastern and Lexington Catholic.  They meet Ballard on Wednesday with a chance to prove they belong in those ranks.  Win, and they might actually garner consideration form a media outlet.  

-The Sweet 16 draws near.  All of the media consensus top five teams (Covington Catholic, Daviess County, Madison Central, St. X) would slot into the top half of the bracket, and seven of the top nine have their regions up top (with Ballard, Warren Central, and North Laurel joining those four).  There's a possibility that six of those nine teams could actually make it, as only St. X and Ballard are in the same region from that grouping.  It's a very top heavy bracket.  George Rogers Clark, Jeffersontown, and North Oldham are the only teams in the bottom bracket that are consensus top ten, with no region overlap.

 

[TimeWillTell]

Still shocked Daviess County is ranked 2nd. They are not a top 5 team. I think they would get beat by 8 of the top 10. Really interesting poll. Put them in the top 10 but they are not #2. 

[DragonFire]

2 minutes ago, TimeWillTell said:

Still shocked Daviess County is ranked 2nd. They are not a top 5 team. I think they would get beat by 8 of the top 10. Really interesting poll. Put them in the top 10 but they are not #2. 

The Massey Ratings are lower on them than the human rankings, which can often put a greater emphasis on record.  They're just 7th in that.  I think it is also notable that among the consensus top ten teams by the media ranks, only North Laurel has a worse strength of schedule.  They come in at just 24th by Massey SoS, North Laurel in at 34.  Daviess has just a 31st ranked SoS moving forward as well, with only Grayson County left to really give them much of a push.  They are unbeaten in Kentucky, and they do have strong wins over GRC, Woodford County, Caverna, North Laurel, and McCracken County.  They just haven't had a Kentucky team that could push them in over a month now.