A mid-level shortwave trough will move eastward across the central U.S. today. In response, a low-level jet will gradually strengthen across the Ozarks today. At the surface, a warm front will move northward across the Tennessee Valley this afternoon and into the Ohio Valley this evening. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop along and to the south of the warm front near the eastern edge of the low-level jet. Forecast conditions could cause an environment to be enough for an isolated severe threat. If surface-based cells can initiate near or to the south of the front, a few severe gusts and a brief tornado spinup would be possible. Some areas of Kentucky could see a chance of strong to severe storms throughout the day on Thursday.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Update:

 

The Storm Prediction Center has expanded the level 1 marginal risk area to include most of Kentucky except western KY. 

Showers and thunderstorms will move across the area this afternoon into tonight. While the entire area has a chance to see thunderstorms, there is the potential for a few strong to severe storms across south central Kentucky this evening into Thursday morning. Confidence in severe storms is low; however, if any strong storms develop, damaging wind gusts and an isolated tornado would be possible.

 

 

 

 

 

I just received an update from the NWS-Louisville office. Because of this, I'm issuing a BGP Severe Weather Alert Day.

Quote

 

Good Afternoon,

Confidence has increased a bit in potential for a few severe thunderstorms later tonight into Thursday morning. Although we can't rule out some stronger storms this evening, the bigger concern will be in the pre-dawn hours through mid morning where isolated instances of damaging wind or a tornado will be possible. The greatest threat is highlighted in this updated graphic. Wanted to get a bit of a heads up out on this given that severe weather could occur in the nighttime hours.

Let us know if you have any questions,

NWS Louisville, KY

 

Early indications are we are about to get some serious winter weather next week from Monday night - Wednesday night. I know it is still a few days out before anything definite is known, but weather channel is reporting a big time snow event in Northern Kentucky. 

Any details on that, yet?

4 hours ago, AvidSportsJunkie856 said:

Early indications are we are about to get some serious winter weather next week from Monday night - Wednesday night. I know it is still a few days out before anything definite is known, but weather channel is reporting a big time snow event in Northern Kentucky. 

Any details on that, yet?

I'll post something later this evening. It has been changing because of how far away we are, but from late Monday evening into early Wednesday morning, a winter system could pass through Kentucky. Both accumulations of snow and freezing rain will be possible. 

3 minutes ago, nWo said:

I'll post something later this evening. It has been changing because of how far away we are, but from late Monday evening into early Wednesday morning, a winter system could pass through Kentucky. Both accumulations of snow and freezing rain will be possible. 

Yeah, I knew we were still too far out to get a definitive forecast, but I was curious if you thought it would be a significant system.

I am on board for one more nice snow. Give me one more from 3-6 inches and then bring on Spring!! ?

Thanks for replying and I look forward to the post tonight!

Just now, AvidSportsJunkie856 said:

Yeah, I knew we were still too far out to get a definitive forecast, but I was curious if you thought it would be a significant system.

I am on board for one more nice snow. Give me one more from 3-6 inches and then bring on Spring!! ?

Thanks for replying and I look forward to the post tonight!

The latest GFS is showing more than the totals you posted, but we'll have to see. It's been going up and down. 

This is the GEFS model; it is 21 separate forecasts. It shows the percentage of all of the runs. The higher the number, the greater the chance of >1 inch of snow. This is from Monday night into early Wednesday morning.