If this weather came through in the evening with the conditions it's carrying for this early morning, it may have been catastrophic. Just imagine if the sun came out to enhance that daytime heating. I'm not saying we lucked out, but it seems it could be worse. Staying weather alert tonight. 

 

Thanks for all the hard work, @nWo!

9 minutes ago, Kentucky Windage said:

If this weather came through in the evening with the conditions it's carrying for this early morning, it may have been catastrophic. Just imagine if the sun came out to enhance that daytime heating. I'm not saying we lucked out, but it seems it could be worse. Staying weather alert tonight. 

 

Thanks for all the hard work, @nWo!

Thank you. You are correct. The surface based CIN, or cap, is stopping the storm's development for now. It should start to have a lesser effect on storm development soon. 

The storms are now starting to fire up in central Indiana.

The time window this morning from 3 to 9 am worries me the most. The Significant Tornado Parameter shows that there is a growing chance that a significant tornado will emerge. This does not guarantee that one will, but the likelihood is rising.

 

 

48 minutes ago, nWo said:

The storms are now starting to fire up in central Indiana.

Just walked outside. It's warm and windy. Warmer than the day was. Can definitely hear the upper level winds howling. It feels like it's going to pop any minute. Location is Alexandria, KY.

Everyone should be alert this morning. Especially from the I-64 corridor northward.

I neglected to mention western Kentucky in the last post about tornado chances increasing. 

The storm I've been watching in western Kentucky near Owensboro just went severe.

 

   Mesoscale Discussion 0172
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0201 AM CST Wed Feb 28 2024

   Areas affected...Southern Indiana...Southwest Ohio...Northern
   Kentucky

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 27...

   Valid 280801Z - 281000Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 27 continues.

   SUMMARY...A tornado threat is expected to continue across WW 27 for
   a few more hours. Isolated large hail and wind damage will also be
   possible.

   DISCUSSION...The latest high-resolution radar imagery shows a couple
   strong to severe short line segments over southern Indiana. This
   convection is located along a corridor of instability, where the RAP
   is estimating MLCAPE in the 500 to 1000 J/kg range. Water vapor
   imagery and 500 mb analysis from the RAP have a shortwave trough and
   fast moving vorticity max located in southwest Indiana. This feature
   will continue to enhance lift and provide support for continued
   strong thunderstorm development early this morning. The latest
   WSR-88D VWP from Indianapolis has 0-6 km shear near 55 knots
   suggesting that supercells with large hail and wind damage will be
   possible. In addition, a 60 to 70 knot jet is analyzed at 850 mb
   centered over far northern Kentucky which will continue to provide
   strong low-level shear sufficient for an isolated tornado threat.
   Furthermore, an increase in the severe threat could occur over the
   next few hours in northern Kentucky as cells increase in coverage
   within and just to the south of WW 27.
 

 

  URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
   Tornado Watch Number 28
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   255 AM CST Wed Feb 28 2024

   The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

   * Tornado Watch for portions of 
     portions of central and eastern Kentucky
     northern Middle Tennessee

   * Effective this Wednesday morning from 255 AM until 800 AM CST.

   * Primary threats include...
     A couple tornadoes possible
     Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible
     Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible

   SUMMARY...Strong/locally severe thunderstorms continue to increase
   in the vicinity of the Ohio River in northern Kentucky early this
   morning, near the southern fringe of Tornado Watch 27.  Storms are
   forecast to continue to gradually spread east-southeastward over the
   next several hours, with local risk for damaging winds and hail,
   along with potential for a couple of tornadoes.

   The tornado watch area is approximately along and 35 statute miles
   north and south of a line from 35 miles west southwest of Bowling
   Green KY to 30 miles northeast of Jackson KY. For a complete
   depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
   (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8).

   PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

   REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
   tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
   area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
   threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
   and possible warnings.
 

The temperature here in Richmond is around 68 degrees. Also windy.

The severe thunderstorm heading toward the Standford/Berea direction has radar-indicated hail 1" in diameter with it. 

All watches have been canceled.