Bluegrass Preps Class 1A Preview

[Voice of Reason]

COVID has taken its toll in Class 1A. In five of the eight districts there are fewer than four teams in the district bracket. That set up some byes for a number of teams in the first round. That said, every team except one that opted out of the playoffs in 1A was a four seed in their district. Duly noted. There are some interesting and competitive matchups lined up for round one. We will look at rounds one and two in this playoff preview.

 

 District 1 Seeding

1. Crittenden County

2. Russellville

 District 1 Storylines

Two teams opted out in District 1, with Fulton County dropping out just this week after the brackets were set. That was unfortunate as the Pilots had a solid chance at winning a round 1 district game scheduled against Russellville as evidenced by their one point loss to Russellville in the regular season. With Fulton County now out, both teams in District 1 get Friday off to prepare for a round 2 face off. 

District 1 Prediction

The resurgence of perennial 1A top ten Russellville has been a nice story in 1A this year. Unfortunately, Crittenden County has a team capable of a once in a decade level of success for the Rockets. Following a disappointing season opening shutout loss to Caldwell County, the Rockets ran off six straight wins including a 47-6 blasting of Russellville. Crittenden County is flying high and should have no problem winning District 1.

 

District 2 Seeding

1. Louisville Holy Cross

2. Bethlehem

3. Campbellsville

 District 2 Storylines

With Holy Cross getting a round 1 bye, the round 1 story is the rematch between two teams of Eagles, Campbellsville and Bethlehem. Bethlehem made a statement in the first game between these two with their star RB Ladarion Montgomery rushing for 216 yards and their defense holding Campbellsville to negative 26 yards rushing. That was certainly Campbellsville’s worst game of the year and they have to be eyeing this rematch with eagerness for redemption. This is a tough game to call and arguably the game of the week in 1A. We will cautiously give the edge to Bethlehem.

District 2 Prediction

Waiting for the winner will be top seed Holy Cross. The Cougars have put together a stellar season posting a 6-1 record and entering the postseason at #1 in KHSAA RPI in 1A. Regardless of who wins the game above, the Cougars look to be too strong for that winner. It won’t be easy for Holy Cross and an upset is definitely a possibility, but look for the Cougars to win District 2.

 

District 3 Seeding

1. Kentucky Country Day

2. Frankfort

3. Eminence

4. Berea 

District 3 Storylines

In District 3 we finally get to a district with two first round games. Kudos to Berea for taking on the challenge of facing the #2 team in KHSAA RPI, Kentucky Country Day. The other round 1 game sets up as a shoot out considering the 51-38 Frankfort win in the first meeting with Eminence. In that win Frankfort RB Azeno Williams rushed for 384 yards and 4 TD’s. Both teams average over 30 points per game. Look for Frankfort to win another shoot out. 

District 3 Prediction

Speaking of high scoring, Kentucky Country Day scored 42, 49 and 51 in their three regular season district wins. The Bearcats will be able to handle whoever makes it to this district championship game and move on to round 3.

 

District 4 Seeding

1. Newport Central Catholic

2. Ludlow

3. Dayton 

District 4 Storylines

Dayton started the season with 5 straight wins before falling to Newport Catholic, and then followed that with a tough 22-12 loss to Ludlow. Dayton has not won a playoff game since 1998, but they have a legitimate opportunity to break that streak this year. Ludlow may be the favorite but only slightly. This is another fun first round matchup.

District 4 Prediction

Newport Central Catholic dominated the district in regular season play. They will have three weeks to get ready and shake off back to back season ending shut out losses. With four TD regular season wins over both Ludlow and Dayton, the Thoroughbreds should have no worries about moving on to round 3.

 

District 5 Seeding

1. Bishop Brossart

2. Nicholas County

3. Paris

 District 5 Storylines

Nicholas County’s only loss this year was to Bishop Brossart in triple overtime. Paris only has one win but they have been competitive in every game except one and only lost by a 27-20 score in their first meeting with Nicholas County. A 1-5 team versus a 5-1 team looks lopsided but that first game result says Paris could pull off a big upset. Regardless of who wins that one, the district title game should also be a toss up.

District 5 Prediction

This is arguably the toughest district in 1A to predict. Any one of these three teams could win the district title. Nicholas County’s 5-1 record is tainted by four of the wins being over teams with one or zero wins, so don’t be misled by records. Bishop Brossart is the most battle tested team and they have wins over both Paris and Nicholas County. The Mustangs should be able to squeak out the win and move on to rounds 3.

 

District 6 Seeding

1. Raceland

2. Paintsville

3. Betsy Layne

 District 6 Storyline

Betsy Layne did not face Paintsville in the regular season but their one common opponent tells us the Bobcats are in trouble. Paintsville will have no problem in their tune up for the Raceland rematch. 

District 6 Prediction

Paintsville’s perfect record was ruined by Raceland’s last second wobbling low line drive field goal on the last play of the game. The Tigers will be out to avenge that loss. Until that loss, the Tigers looked like the team with the best chance of beating #1 Pikeville. The Tigers want that top challenger label back. We think they will earn it back with a win over Raceland at Raceland.

 

District 7 Seeding

1. Pikeville

2. Hazard

3. Phelps

4. Sayre

 

District 7 Storylines

There are storylines aplenty in this district. Did Hazard get back to Bulldogs football with their two season ending wins? Did Pikeville’s confidence and swagger get blown away in their big season ending loss to Lexington Christian? Just how good are the 8-0 Sayre Spartans? Hazard should repeat their regular season win over Phelps. Pikeville will show Sayre they still have a way to go to reach their mountain top.

District 7 Prediction

That will set up a familiar district title game with Pikeville hosting Hazard. Pikeville has dominated this rivalry in recent years and that is not going to change this year. Pikeville moves on to round 3.

 

District 8 Seeding

1. Williamsburg

2. Pineville

3. Harlan

4. Lynn Camp

 District 8 Storylines

COVID has been very tough on District 8. Only Pineville made it to a sixth game in the regular season. The Mountain Lions were able to get in all their district games and that gives us insight into the lay of the land here. The top two seeds are the clear favorites in their round 1 games. Harlan may be able to hang with Pineville for a quarter or so, but Pineville won by three TD’s in the regular season so don’t look for much more than that from Harlan. Williamsburg will have no trouble with Lynn Camp.

District 8 Prediction

When Williamsburg faced Pineville in the regular season, the Yellow Jackets were 0-2 and the Mountain Lions were 2-1. Those records meant nothing to Williamsburg as they stung Pineville 40-0. Williamsburg should have little trouble claiming another district title and moving on to round 3.

[Voice of Reason]

Most interesting games tonight:

Campbellsville at Bethlehem- Two top ten teams play in round 1.

Sayre at Pikeville - How will the new kid on the block handle a trip to the top of the mountain in Class 1A?

 

[Voice of Reason]

Round 1 Results:

Bethlehem 37 Campbellsville 19

Eminence 21 Frankfort 20

Kentucky Country Day 62 Berea 8

Ludlow 39 Dayton 20

Nicholas County 36 Paris 16

Paintsville 55 Betsy Layne 8

Pikeville 49 Sayre 14

Pineville 21 Harlan 14

Williamsburg 42 Lynn Camp 0

Phelps at Hazard 1 pm Saturday

 

 

Here is the link to the bracket:

https://scoreboard.12dt.com/scoreboard/khsaa/kyfb20/tournament_187001

 

 

[Bac2369]

Didn’t see the Eminence win coming.

[Voice of Reason]

Here is the current lineup for this Friday:

Russellville at #3 Crittenden County

#7 Bethlehem at #6 Louisville Holy Cross

Eminence at #2 Kentucky Country Day

Ludlow at #9 Newport Central Catholic

Nicholas County at Bishop Brossart

#5 Paintsville at #4 Raceland

Hazard/Phelps at #1 Pikeville

Pineville at #8 Williamsburg

 

Game of the Week:

Paintsville at Raceland - Raceland won the regular season game 23-20 on a last second crossbar height field goal. That was arguably the upset of the season in 1A. Paintsville entered that game undefeated and looked to be on a championship game collision course with Pikeville. This game is one of the best rivalries in 1A. Often times in recent years the regular season loser has turned the tables in the playoffs. If you can find a way to watch, this game will not disappoint.

 

[Voice of Reason]

Round two of the playoffs is in the books and we had one whopper of an upset. The championship of this class is wide open for the taking now with Hazard's incredible upset of Pikeville. We are still waiting for Louisville Holy Cross and Bethlehem to play tonight at 6 pm so we don't have all the brackets set. Remember, round 3 in the playoffs uses KHSAA RPI to seed the matchups in each half of the state. You can't go by the way it lines up in the brackets you have seen so far or by what you see currently. We will not know who the four teams in the top half of the bracket play next week until the Holy Cross / Bethlehem result is in. While we wait for that result, let's take a look at what happened last night.

District 1 Round 2 Results

Crittenden County 42 Russellville 13

Crittenden County took care of business. They entered this district title game the heavy favorite and showed why. It was a nice improvement for Russellville this year but more work ahead to get back to that perennial 1A top ten level they enjoyed for many years. With Pikeville's upset loss last night, Crittenden County is a team to watch as one of the top contenders for the 1A title.

 District 2 Round 2 Results 

Louisville Holy Cross vs. Bethlehem

Bethlehem had an easier go of it than expected in beating Campbellsville in round 1. Holy Cross had last week off. The first time these two top ten teams met it was a shootout with the Cougars getting a 54-43 win. The Bethlehem defense is going to need to step it up for the Eagles to pull off the upset of the RPI #1 Cougars. 

District 3 Round 2 Results

Kentucky Country Day 57 Eminence 13

Eminence got a nice win in round 1 over Frankfort but Kentucky Country Day was too much. Country Day has spent the entire season in the top 4 of 1A so they are another team that got excited about their title chances when they saw the Pikeville loss. Now the Bearcats wait for the Holy Cross / Bethlehem result to determine if they host Crittenden County or Newport Central Catholic in round 3. 

District 4 Round 2 Results

Newport Central Catholic 46 Ludlow 7 

Not much to say about this one. The Thoroughbreds dominated regular season play in the district and it was no different in the playoffs. The 'Breds are on the road in round 3 with the destination decided in Louisville tonight. A Holy Cross win gets the 'Breds a chance to avenge last year's playoff loss to the Cougars. A Bethlehem win sends the "Breds even further west to Crittenden County.

 District 5 Round 2 Results

Nicholas County 1 Bishop Brossart 0

The COVID monster made an appearance in round 2. Bishop Brossart was forced to forfeit their game due to a positive COVID test. As a result, Nicholas County will travel to Williamsburg for round 3.

District 6 Round 2 Results

Paintsville 28 Raceland 21 (OT)

This game seems like it never disappoints. Paintsville got revenge on a last second loss in the regular season with an overtime win over the Rams. The game was back and forth throughout with never more than a one score difference. Raceland scored late in the fourth quarter to tie it. In OT, the Tigers scored on their first play from scrimmage and then stopped the Rams on a goal line stand to get the win. Paintsville is now the RPI #1 team in the east and will host the rejuvenated Hazard Bulldogs in round 3. 

District 7 Round 2 Results

Hazard 21 Pikeville 12

Speaking of those Bulldogs, all you can say is WOW! They lost in the regular season to Pikeville 43 - 7. But that was a different team. Hazard has arguably their two best players back from injury and what a difference it has made. This game goes down as one of the biggest upsets in 1A history. The prize for the Bulldogs now is a trip to Paintsville. Can Hazard do it two weeks in a row?

District 8 Round 2 Results

Williamsburg 49 Pineville 13

The Williamsburg domination of this district continues on. No surprises here. The Yellow Jackets will host Nicholas County in round 3.

 

We will update this and look ahead to round 3 matchups after tonight's Holy Cross / Bethlehem game.

[Voice of Reason]

Here is the 1A RPI for the teams still in the hunt:

West Bracket

1. Louisville Holy Cross ............. 69983

2. Kentucky Country Day ........... 65407

3. Crittenden County .................. 62092

4. Newport Central Catholic ...... 60992

5. Bethlehem .............................. 60584

 

East Bracket

1. Paintsville ................................63404

2. Williamsburg ........................... 57101

3. Nicholas County ..................... 56455

4. Hazard .................................... 49429

 

 

[Voice of Reason]

Louisville Holy Cross had to go into overtime to secure the last slot in the 1A regional championship round of the playoffs. That is a very appropriate indicator of where things stand in class 1A. Hazard's upset win over Pikeville, the overwhelming favorite to win the title, puts class 1A into total toss up mode. Seven of the eight remaining teams have realistic hopes of winning the title. Has there ever been any other year on any level that a title was this much up for grabs with eight teams still playing?

In round 3 the RPI of each team sets the matchups on each side of the bracket. The RPI's are listed above. Let's get to the matchups.

WEST BRACKET

Newport Central Catholic at Louisville Holy Cross

This is a rematch of last year's round 3 play off which Holy Cross won 21-16.  Holy Cross is the #1 remaining seed in the entire state in RPI which makes them the favorite in this one. There is no better game to show how  much in doubt this playoff race is than this one.  No one would be surprised if Newport Central Catholic wins this game despite the Thoroughbreds being towards the bottom of the list of contenders in the rankings. The Holy Cross offense goes through quarterback Chaz Geraghty, who has over 1000 yards rushing and passing on the season.  Both of these teams are stronger running the ball than passing it so look for an old school style rushing first contest. That doesn't mean it will be a low scoring game. Holy Cross is #2 in scoring in 1A averaging 39 points per game. For New Cath to get the win, their defense is going to need to limit the Cougars offense. 

Prediction - Holy Cross 28 Newport Catholic 24

 

Crittenden County at Kentucky Country Day

This is the marquee match up in this round of the 1A playoffs. These two teams are leading contenders to win the title. Country Day is #1 in scoring, #3 in defense and #1 in scoring margin. Crittenden County is #4 in scoring, #2 in defense and #3 in scoring margin.  Impressive resumes for both teams. However, there is one area that gives Crittendon County the edge on paper - strength of schedule.  The Rockets' strength of schedule is significantly better than the Bearcats'.  Two games in particular that grab our attention are Crittenden County's win over Murray and their one point loss to top ten 6A Henderson County. Look for our season long dark horse pick to get the win on the road.

Prediction - Crittenden County 35 Kentucky Country Day 28

 

EAST BRACKET 

Hazard at Paintsville 

Giant slayer Hazard will look to make it two weeks in a row avenging lopsided regular season losses and show everyone last week's win over Pikeville was no fluke. Paintsville inherits the role of favorite to win the title following Pikeville's loss last week.  The key to the turnaround for the Bulldogs is feeding the ball to sophomore running back Max Johnson. Johnson has gone over 100 yards per game weekly since becoming the go to running back. Paintsville has the #1 defense in class 1A and is #4 in rushing defense so the challenge this week for the Bulldogs is just as stiff as it was last week.  While another Bulldogs win would not be the shocker of last week's, we think it is too much to ask for them to do it two weeks in a row.

Prediction - Paintsville 21 Hazard 14

 

Nicholas County at Williamsburg 

Both of these teams have encountered COVID throughout the season including last week when Nicholas County got a win by virtue of COVID over Bishop Brossart.  Williamsburg had four regular season games canceled due to COVID policy issues.  Both teams have persevered and overcome to get to this stage of the playoffs. Williamsburg features its high powered offense led by QB Sydney Brown and the #1 WR in 1A, Gavon Thomas. Williamsburg is the heavy favorite in this one.  Look for a similar score to the Yellow Jackets' win last week over Pineville.

Prediction - Williamsburg 42 Nicholas County 14