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BGP Severe Weather Alert Day Sunday/Monday 4/12-13/2020


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Since it appears that this severe weather event will be late Sunday evening into the early morning hours on Monday I'm issuing a BGP Severe Weather Alert. The Storm Prediction Center has moved the Enhanced Risk Area back westward but moved it more northward. The rest of Kentucky is covered by a Slight Risk Area except for portions of eastern Kentucky that portion is covered by a Marginal Risk Area.






An outbreak of severe storms is expected today across portions of the Lower Mississippi Valley in the southeastern U.S. Intense storms capable of widespread damaging winds, large hail, and several strong tornadoes are possible with several rounds of storms from late morning into the overnight hours. As of this morning, these storms are not expected to reach western Kentucky until late Sunday evening then traverses in a northeasterly direction across the state.


Conditions along a surface cold front will result in income upscale growth in one or more bowing segments. This could result in a corridor of intense damaging winds in western Kentucky during the evening/overnight hours. In addition to the damaging wind potential, mesovortex tornadoes (similar to tornadoes that form in the eyewall of a hurricane) also will be possible. These could cause multiple simultaneous tornado warnings as the radar detects their rotation.


Here are the simulations all cover the 11 pm EDT Sunday to 11 am EDT Monday morning.










Possible supercell development




Possible significant tornado development




This is an evolving situation and I will update this afternoon.

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The severe threat has lessened some for Kentucky. Conditions still will be favorable for fast-moving supercells and line segments capable of producing large hail and damaging winds. The northeast extent of the damaging wind and tornado threat into tonight will depend largely on how widespread and organized the convection is across northern Mississippi/Alabama this afternoon/evening. Most of Kentucky is still under a category 2 Slight Risk Area.



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