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BGP Severe Weather Alert Day, Tornado Threat Index 1 (2/28/2020) Update

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A BGP Severe Weather Alert Day will be in effect for later today into the overnight hours. There is also a BGP Level 1 Tornado Threat Index that will be in effect for the same period. The Storm Prediction Center has most of Kentucky in a Level 2 Slight Risk Area for severe storms later this evening into the overnight hours.

 

KY_swody1.png

 

tornado.jpg

 

Storms will develop and travel through the Ohio Valley later this evening will all severe hazards possible. Damaging winds, hail up to 1" in diameter and tornadoes upwards to EF-2 could be seen. For now, the timing looks to be between 8 pm EDT to about 7-8 am EDT Sunday morning.

 

The following simulations are from 8 pm EDT to 8 am EDT Sunday morning.

 

Radar

 

floop-nam4km-2020032806.refcmp.us_ov.gif

 

EHI (Atmospheric conditions for severe weather formation)

 

floop-nam4km-2020032806.ehi03.us_ov.gif

 

Supercell Conditions

 

floop-nam4km-2020032806.scp.us_ov.gif

 

Significant Tornado Conditions

 

floop-nam4km-2020032806.stp.us_ov.gif

 

I will be monitoring this situation throughout the day and post updates when possible. I wouldn't be at all surprised if the severe weather level is raised later today. Especially in western Kentucky.

  • Author

This update is mainly for those in western Kentucky.

 

 

The Storm Prediction Center has expanded the Enhanced Risk Area from this morning closer to Kentucky. The area doesn't include any parts of Kentucky as of yet but it is very close to the Owensboro area.

 

KY_swody1.png

 

Severe thunderstorms will develop ahead of a cold front this evening. The storms could produce damaging winds, a few tornadoes, and large hail. While the timing can't be exact but from 5 to 9 pm CDT everyone should be monitoring the weather in the area. There is still some uncertainty regarding how widespread the coverage of severe weather will be.

 

The threats include:

 

Frequent cloud to ground lightning

Large hail up to a quarter or half dollar size.

Damaging wind gusts up to 70 MPH

A few tornadoes are possible some of which could be strong.

 

I will be updating throughout the day when information warrants it.

  • Author

As I expected this morning the Storm Prediction Center has raised the threat level for portions of western Kentucky. It is now up to a level 3 Enhanced Risk Area. I'm also raising the BGP Tornado Threat Index to level 2 for the section of Kentucky in the Enhanced Risk Area.

 

 

KY_swody1.png

  • Author

The severe weather threat is increasing for portions of western Kentucky.

 

EUPLXajU8AAHL37.jpg

  • Author

Set the volumes of your phone on high tonight. This event is going to last into the morning hours on Sunday.

  • Author

The severe level threat has just been raised to a level 3 Enhanced Risk Area for portions of Kentucky west of the I-65 corridor. I'm issuing a high Level 2 BGP Tornado Threat Index for that area. This is going to be a dangerous situation because any tornadoes that form will be very hard to see at night. Any possible tornadoes could be quite strong and last on the ground awhile.

 

KY_swody1.png

 

tornado threat index.jpg

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