January 8, 20206 yr There is a possibility of some storms on Saturday. Afternoon temps could reach the low 70s for some. With this unseasonably warm weather comes the chances of strong to severe thunderstorms. First the temperature map. It shows the temps in the mid to high 60s for most of Kentucky. A low-pressure system is forecast to develop along a stationary front just to the west of Kentucky early Saturday morning. This stationary front will start to move across Kentucky during the day on Saturday and switch to a cold front. A line of storms will develop and traverse Kentucky in an easterly direction. The GFS EHI is showing conditions could be favorable for these storms to be strong to severe. Most of Kentucky could receive 1-2.5" of rain Saturday. I will be monitoring this situation and post updates as we get closer.
January 8, 20206 yr Author The Storm Prediction Center has a small portion of South Central and Western Kentucky in an area with a 15% chance of strong to severe storms. Both the GFS and NAM models are showing this possible strong to severe weather. They differ on the timing. The GFS has the showers and storm moving through Kentucky about 2 hours faster than the NAM. GFS Radar The GFS EHI which shows the conditions could be favorable for the formation of strong to severe storms. Note that those around the I-75 corridor could see some strong activity late in the period. The GFS has it reaching around I-75 the 1-5 pm EST time slot. The GFS has the heaviest rain accumulations along and west of I-75. The NAM is showing essentially the same thing as the GFS but it has the showers and storms about 2 hours later than the GFS. NAM Radar The NAM EHI closely matches the GFS. The NAM also is showing the heaviest rain accumulations west of I-75 but lesser in amount than the GFS. So the models are in agreement about showers and possibly strong to severe storms during the day on Saturday. They differ on the timing. I should start getting a good read on the timing by tomorrow afternoon.
January 9, 20206 yr Author The strong storm potential still exists for Saturday. For now, the timing for the storms is they will be in western Kentucky during the morning. They should arrive in central Kentucky during the afternoon. The threats that could exist are damaging winds a few brief spin-up tornadoes. Also, moderate to heavy rainfall causing flash flooding. This is the first time I've attempted to draw where the storms could form. I will post a more detailed update no later than tomorrow morning. I will try and post one tonight.
January 10, 20206 yr Author A large section of Kentucky is now in Category 1 Marginal Risk Area for strong to severe storms Saturday. Update later today.
January 10, 20206 yr Author The threat level has risen since my last post for Saturday. I will post an update in about an hour or so. More than likely I'll be going into a Severe Weather Threat Mode for Saturday then.
January 10, 20206 yr Author The Marginal Risk Area has been expanded to include southern and central Ohio and portions of southern and southeastern Indiana. I will post another update later today as soon as possible after the afternoon model runs have been issued.
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.