May 19, 20197 yr A low-pressure system is forecast to move from southern Wisconsin into northern lower Michigan as a cold front advances eastward across the mid to upper Mississippi Valley. Ahead of the front, a moist airmass will advect(transfer) northward into the lower Ohio Valley. In response, a corridor of instability is forecast to set up from western Kentucky northward into lower Michigan by afternoon. Surface-based thunderstorms appear likely to develop along the instability corridor around midday with this convection moving eastward across the Ohio Valley during the afternoon. A second round of convection associated with the cold front may move into the instability corridor during the late afternoon and early evening. Indications are that the conditions should be sufficient for severe multi cells capable of producing wind damage. The wind damage threat would be greatest if a cold pool can organize. Although more conditional, isolated supercells with a potential for a brief tornado, large hail and wind damage will be possible in areas where instability becomes strongest and cells remain discrete. The wind damage threat should continue into the early evening across portions of the Ohio Valley as the cold front approaches from the west. The following simulated NAM 3KM radar shows this. It is from 4 pm EDT this afternoon to 1 am EDT Monday morning. I will try to update when I can. I will be traveling to Lancaster this afternoon so I don't know when I will be able to. Probably not until I get home early this evening. So I'm going to issue a severe weather alert day.
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