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Category 2 Slight Risk Area for Thursday (update)


nWo
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There appears to be a better chance for strong to severe storms on Thursday. After the initial rains Thursday morning redevelopment and intensification of storms will be possible during the afternoon. I will be watching this closely and post an update when possible. I'm on vacation so I'll post when I can.

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The Slight Risk Area has been expanded some by the Storm Prediction Center. Severe Thunderstorms capable of mainly damaging wind gusts and hail, and the possibility of tornadoes are possible. The fly in the ointment that could limit the for the severe potential will be the rain this morning. For now the timing looks to be from early afternoon into the evening hours before the scattered storms leave Kentucky.

 

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This is from 1 pm to 11 pm EST.

 

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I will update later this morning.

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There is an area of mesoscale vortex that is present over Indiana that has a trailing line of storms over southern Indiana into central Kentucky. This system has a chance of intensification this afternoon as heating and destabilization occur. Damaging winds and hail look to be the primary threats. As always a tornado or two can't be completely ruled out. Most of western Kentucky is now in a Category 1 Marginal Risk Area.

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Mesoscale Discussion 0500

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

1222 PM CDT Thu May 02 2019

 

Areas affected...extreme southeast Indiana...far southwest

Ohio...central into eastern Kentucky...northern Tennessee

 

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

 

Valid 021722Z - 021915Z

 

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

 

SUMMARY...Damaging wind gusts and a few instances of marginally severe hail are possible with renewed convection associated with the outflow from earlier storms. Convective trends with this new development is being monitored for a possible WW issuance.

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