A strong cold front is forecast to push through Kentucky late Monday evening into Tuesday morning. There still remains some uncertainty in the strength/severity of the line as it pushes through western and central Kentucky. All severe weather modes are possible during this event. Tornadoes, damaging winds, and some large hail.

 

Timing looks to be Monday afternoon/evening west of I-65. Early Tuesday morning along and east of I-65. This could be a possible overnight severe weather event for central Kentucky and southern Indiana.

 

I will post a more detailed forecast later this evening.

 

 

Be Weather Ready!

 

Will start getting a good handle on the timing tomorrow. Monday evening into Tuesday is just past the limit of the NAM model. But for now here is what the GFS is showing.

 

The first is the EHI showing the atmospheric energy for the formation of strong to severe storms. It is from 8 pm et/7 central to around 2 pm/1 central Tuesday afternoon,

 

 

The next one is the simulated radar from 8 pm ET/7 CT Monday to the same time Tuesday evening.

 

 

I will update everyone again early tomorrow morning.

Numerous severe storms with the potential for damaging wind and tornadoes are expected Monday evening into the overnight for parts of Kentucky. The primary change to the forecast is that the severe risk areas have been moved farther north and east.

 

 

Potential still exists for significant severe weather to transpire Monday evening and overnight. A low-pressure system is forecast to deepen as it lifts northeast into the Ohio Valley. The threats to look for are mainly damaging wind and tornadoes, though some hail will also be possible.

 

I will be monitoring this developing situation as we get closer I will update later today.

Confidence is growing that a line of storms will move west to east Monday night into early Tuesday morning. All types of severe weather will be possible. Tornadoes and damaging winds will be the main threats, along with some hail. Look for some locally torrential downpours.

 

Timing is still uncertain so refinements will come as we get closer to Monday. Have a plan in place at home and work if or when severe weather threatens. This is expected to be an overnight severe weather event for southern Indiana and central Kentucky. Be sure to have a way to get weather warnings especially during the overnight hours. Don't rely on the outdoor sirens to wake you up. These are designed for people outdoors not indoors.

 

I will update early Sunday morning.

Confidence continues to increase that a line or even multiple lines of storms will push through the region from west to east ahead of a cold front Monday evening into early Tuesday morning. The most likely severe weather threats are damaging winds, brief tornadoes, and flash flooding. There also may be so small hail.

 

Mixed storms including a squall line and supercells are likely to develop along and just ahead of an advancing cold front Monday evening into Tuesday. A Moderate Risk upgrade might be warranted for some parts of Kentucky and surrounding states in later outlooks.

 

Everyone should be weather aware Monday evening into Tuesday morning. Check back for updates

 

 

 

 

 

The chance for severe weather threat is still increasing. Confidence continues to rise that a line or even multiple lines of storms, will push through the region from west to east Monday evening into early Tuesday morning. The main threats continue to be damaging winds brief tornadoes flash flooding and a slight chance for some small hail.

 

For now, it looks like most of the storms won't fire up in Kentucky until after 8 pm. Both damaging winds and tornadoes will be possible, with tornado potential the greatest in parts of southern Kentucky. A strong tornado cannot be completely ruled out. The Storm Prediction Center has expanded the Enhanced Risk Area to include most of southcentral and Central Kentucky. Also most of the rest of Kentucky is now in a Slight Risk Area for strong to severe storms.

 

 

 

 

I will update early in the morning and will issue a BGP Severe Weather Alert Day then.

 

Take care and be weather aware tomorrow into Tuesday.

The severe threat for most Kentucky has lessened some overnight. Most of southern Kentucky is now in a level 2 Slight Risk Area for strong to severe storms. The most of the rest of Kentucky is in a level 1 Marginal Risk Area for strong to severe storms. The reason for drops in level is most of the biggest threats have moved southward to middle Tennesse, Mississippi, and Alabama.

 

Parts of Kentuck could still see strong to severe storms that could produce mainly damaging wind threat. There is still a possibility for a brief tornado to spin up. Also, torrential downpours that could cause flash flooding.

 

 

 

The timing for the storms to cross Kentucky is from around 8 pm ET to 2 am ET.

 

 

 

I will be monitoring this situation throughout the day and post updates around midday and this evening. Be weather aware this evening.

A big tree in our front yard was uprooted. It fell on my husbands truck and has destroyed it. Some fell on the house and part of the overhang over the garage is gone. Some of the ceiling in the garage has fallen down. It is dark now and we really can't see all of the damage now. Our driveway is cover with tree limbs. The good thing is my husband and I were not hurt. Will have pictures on FB tomorrow.

A big tree in our front yard was uprooted. It fell on my husbands truck and has destroyed it. Some fell on the house and part of the overhang over the garage is gone. Some of the ceiling in the garage has fallen down. It is dark now and we really can't see all of the damage now. Our driveway is cover with tree limbs. The good thing is my husband and I were not hurt. Will have pictures on FB tomorrow.

Thank God you both weren't hurt.