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For the complete 2006 BGP 3A Playoff Preview click here!

Region 1

Favorite: Bowling Green

Top Challengers: Hopkinsville, Paducah Tilghman

 

Outlook: Bowling Green enters the post-season with the bullseye squarely on their back.

 

Bowling Green, 9-1, with 9 straight wins, carries the BGP #1 ranking into the playoffs. They opened the season with a narrow 15-7 defeat at the hands of 4A #3 St. Xavier down at L.T. Smith Stadium on the campus of Western Kentucky University. They followed that loss up with two very impressive victories: over 4A #8 Christian Co. and 4A #7 (and cross-town rival) Warren Central.

 

Since that opening run of Top 10 4A opponents, no one has played the Purples within 30 points. In fact, in their last 7 victories they have out-scored their opponents 305 (note: they only "scored" 1 point in a forfeit win over Breckinridge Co.) to 26. Those are eye-popping numbers. The stingy Purple defense has carded 3 shutouts (including the forfeit), one of which came against district runner-up Warren East (9-1).

 

The Purple offense, not to be out-done, ends the season averaging 37.2 points per game. That number becomes even more impressive when you factor in the forfeit victory only tallied 1 point, and that they began the season with such a difficult non-District schedule. In fact, they are on a run of 40+ points in 5 of their last 6 games (excluding the forfeit, obviously).

 

Considering their first two playoff games will be against some combination of three district foes (Allen County-Scottsville and then the winner of Warren East and Franklin-Simpson) that they outscored 128-12 in the regular season, look for this high scoring streak to continue.

 

Bowling Green's biggest challenge to come out of Region 1 should come from District 1; either top-seed Paducah Tilghman or 2nd seed Hopkinsville.

 

Paducah Tilghman (5-5) enters the playoffs on a 5 game winning streak. The last victory in that string was an impressive home win over district rival Hopkinsville (5-5) 28-12. Tilghman was beset with injuries early in the year, however, since district play began, they have become healthier, and are hitting their stride at just the right time. In fact, since District play began, they have out-scored their opponents 179 - 38.

 

Fellow District 1 squad, Hopkinsville, appear to be the only other legitimate challenger to Bowling Green's hopes of coming out of Region 1. Like Paducah Tilghman, they enter the playoffs 5-5 and their story reads like a tale of two halves. Their season got off to a tough start with a loss to 4A #1 Male (9-0) 56-7. However, they appeared to get the ship on the right track once district play began, rolling off 4 straight victories before being upset last week in Paducah.

 

The winner of the 2nd round re-match for the District 1 title should produce Bowling Green's first challenge of this post-season.

 

Regional Finals Prediction: Bowling Green 34, Hopkinsville 17.

 

 

Region 2

Favorite: Central

Top Challengers: Southwestern, Boyle Co., Valley, and Doss

 

Outlook: As you can tell by the list of "top challengers," this Region is wide-open. However, if we had written this preview last week it would have been an entirely different tone.

 

District 3 top-seed, Central, was ranked #4 in the state and appeared to be cruising into the playoffs before getting dumped at home over the weekend by District 3rd seed Doss (6-4) 32-21. Not to mention, there is still the District 4 squads, Southwestern (7-3) and Boyle Co. (5-5), that will be heard from before this Region is settled.

 

As mentioned above, 8-2 Central was playing exceptionally well heading into the final weekend of the season. To that point, their only hiccup had been a narrow 13-7 defeat at the hands of previously Top 10 ranked 4A Pleasure Ridge Park (7-3). During that early stretch of the season Central had impressive wins over 4A Shelby Co. (5-5) 56-28 and District 2nd seed Valley (8-2) 36-0.

 

For the complete 2006 BGP 3A Playoff Preview click here!

 

Regional Finals Prediction: For the complete 2006 BGP 3A Playoff Preview click here!

 

Region 3

Favorite: Covington Catholic

Top Challengers: Highlands, Lexington Catholic

 

Outlook: As usual, this Region is clearly the strongest in 3A in the state of Kentucky. When looking at the Final BGP 3A Top 10 Poll, you find 5 Region 3 teams.

 

CovCath enters the playoffs ranked #2, Highlands #3, LexCath #4, East Jessamine #9 and Franklin Co. #10 (the East Jessamine versus Franklin Co. first round game should be a beauty). Clearly, who ever escapes this gauntlet will have earned their trip to the state semi-finals.

 

Covington Catholic (7-3) has to be considered the favorite based on their thrilling last-second victory over previously #2 ranked Highlands (6-4) in Ft. Thomas on Friday night. CovCath had their usual brutal schedule this year, dropping 3 games versus Ohio opponents (Elder 13-3, Cincy St. Xavier 23-3, and Columbus, OH Watterson 38-13), but enter the playoffs without a loss to a KY team yet this year. They opened the year with impressive victories over 4A Boone Co. (6-4) 44-2, 4A Dixie (5-5) 28-7, and BGP 1A #1 Beechwood (8-2) 34-0.

 

For the complete 2006 BGP 3A Playoff Preview click here!

 

Regional Finals Prediction: For the complete 2006 BGP 3A Playoff Preview click here!

 

Region 4

Favorite: Johnson Central

Top Challengers: Rockcastle Co. and Bell Co.

 

Outlook: This Region is the real wild-card Region this year in 3A.

 

Johnson Central is 10-0, ranked #5 in BGP's Final 3A poll, and has been the most dominant team in this class versus their competition this year. However, fairly or not, questions abound about them because of their lack of quality non-district opponents (4A North Laurel (3-7) or 4A Bryan Station (2-8) would be their best intra-state non-district opponent). That is not to say that Johnson Central isn't an outstanding team, and it's not to say that they aren't more than capable of beating whoever comes out of Region 3, it's just that no one is quite sure.

 

This much is sure, if Johnson Central predictably wins their District Crown, and then is able to beat the District Champ from District 7 (either Rockcastle Co. [9-1] or Bell Co. [8-2]), they will be only 1 win away from playing in Louisville for a 3A State Title.

 

Johnson Central enters these playoffs with all of the hoopla of a State Top 5 team. They average 45 points a game and allow only 8. Only three teams have even reached double figures against them: 4A Bryan Station (2-8) scored 14, Lawrence Co. (2-8) scored 12, and Boyd Co. (4-6, and their first round opponent) scored 12. In fact, their potential 2nd round match-up of either Ashland Blazer (8-2) or Mason Co. (7-3) was defeated by Johnson Central by a combined score of 75-7. Clearly the expectation is that they easily roll into the Regional Championship game.

 

Awaiting Johnson Central in that Regional Championship game will be the team that survives the traditional District Championship battle in District 7: Rockcastle Co. or Bell Co. Rockcastle Co., the district's top-seed, enters the playoffs off of a successful 9-1 campaign. Their only blemish of the season came against 4A Lincoln Co. (9-1) 21-18. Outside of that contest, Rockcastle Co. boasts as their best win an 18-14 home victory over likely 2nd round opponent Bell Co.

 

Rockcastle Co.'s offense has been feast or famine this year, while averaging 39 points per game, having outbursts of 74 (Bourbon Co. [0-10], 61 (first round opponent Clay Co. [7-3], and 54 (Madison Southern [4-6]). Their defense has been it's normally outstanding self, allowing a Region 2nd best only 11 points per game.

 

Bell Co., 8-2, will have a chance to exact some revenge on Rockcastle Co. when they meet in Round 2 of the playoffs for the District 7 Title. Like their archrivals, their offense has been a bit spotty this year. Although they have averaged 30 points per game, they have struggled to light up the scoreboard on occasions as well (notably, against 2A Leslie Co. (5-5) [being held to 7] and versus Rockcastle Co.). If their offense can put points on the board consistently, their defense (3rd in the Region at 12 points allowed per game) should keep them in nearly every game.

 

While the 2nd round tilt at Rockcastle Co. between them and Bell Co. should be a great slobber-knocker, Johnson Central looks to be too tough for either team.

 

Regional Final Prediction: Johnson Central 28, Rockcastle Co. 10

 

Semifinal Predictions:

For the complete 2006 BGP 3A Playoff Preview click here!

 

Championship Prediction:

For the complete 2006 BGP 3A Playoff Preview click here!

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