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Region 1

Favorite: Mayfield

Top challenger: Metcalfe County

 

Outlook: Mayfield has been to the state semifinals 26 times in 31 seasons, counting its time in Class A and Class 2A in the soon-to-be-obsolete four-class system, and the Cardinals are 9-for-11 since dropping down to Class A in 1995. No surprise, then, that they are again the odds-on choice to emerge as western Kentucky's top team.

 

This year's Cardinals aren't as deep and talented as last year's state runner-up squad, but they have been seasoned by one of Class A's most difficult schedules. Mayfield won nail biters against perennial Class 3A powers Hopkinsville and Paducah Tilghman and its only two losses are to Marshall County and Graves County, both solid Class 4A teams.

 

QB Adam Shelton is a three-year starter and the centerpiece of the offense, a dual threat who has always been a solid runner but has improved his ability to throw the ball downfield.

 

Freshman Tyrese Murrell is a small, elusive TB that has recently started to share the load with senior Andy Trevarthan, who was projected as the starter before breaking his hand in a preseason scrimmage.

 

Landon Heath, a 295-pound tackle, has bounced back after an early-season knee injury and anchors the offensive line. LBs Brent Simpkins, Travis Brown and Logan Armstrong anchor a solid defense.

 

Kicker Tommy McNutt has a strong leg and his kickoffs have kept Mayfield's defense in good field position all season.

 

Turnovers have been a sore spot for the Cardinals in recent weeks, however, and could come back to haunt them in the postseason.

 

Mayfield's edge is its mystique earned by years of dominating the region. The Cardinals shouldn’t be threatened in the first two rounds. Fulton City, which won its first seven games before falling 22-8 to Mayfield, missed the playoffs after having to forfeit all of its wins for the use of an ineligible player.

 

Murray has shown some improvement, but has way too much youth to seriously challenge the Cardinals.

 

Metcalfe County just secured its third District 2 title in four years and has been competitive in its two previous playoff encounters with the Cardinals. The Hornets' offense is led by QB Will Warf and RBs Daniel Deleon and Jeffery White, the latter of whom is also a threat in the passing game.

 

Consistency has been an issue for Metcalfe, which lost to Adair County (a non-playoff team in Class 3A) and was nipped by McLean County in the regular-season finale in a game that didn't affect the standings.

 

Metcalfe and McLean will have a first-round rematch, as will Crittenden County and Russellville. Crittenden, led by sophomore RB Jeramie Sorina (579 yards in his last two outings) beat the Panthers 35-21 to close out the regular season.

 

Russellville, a top-10 team in preseason rankings, has plenty of speed, but the defense had problems stopping the run.

 

Regional finals prediction: Mayfield 24, Metcalfe County 6

 

 

Region 2

Favorite: Bardstown

Top challengers: Danville, Frankfort, Bethlehem, Louisville Holy Cross

 

Outlook: Bardstown might be the biggest beneficiary of the revised playoff system, which keeps teams in their own district for the first two rounds.

 

Under the old format, the Tigers would likely have faced the tough assignment of beating Danville and Frankfort (both top-5 teams) in back-to-back weeks to win the regional title.

 

In the current system, the Tigers will be favored to beat teams they handled easily during the regular season.

 

Bardstown lost several important pieces from last fall's state semifinalists, but reloaded with plenty of speed and a stingy defense that allows less than 150 yards per game and gave up just 55 points in 10 games.

 

 

Regional finals prediction: For the complete 2006 BGP 1A Playoff Preview Click Here

 

 

Region 3

Favorite: Beechwood

Top challengers: Newport Central Catholic, Covington Holy Cross, Lexington Christian, Raceland

 

Outlook: There was little doubt that this region was Class A's best in 2005, when Newport Central Catholic rolled to the state title and had two solid challengers in Lexington Christian and Beechwood.

 

Once again, Region 3 appears to have plenty of quality depth. Beechwood took over as the No. 1 team in the BGP rankings late in the regular season.

 

Lexington Christian has an explosive young offense led by freshman TB Domonique Hayden and a team that's matured and come together since a humiliating 63-0 loss to Mercer County (Class 2A's top-ranked team) in the season opener. Last year's team pulled a similar feat, rallying from a one-sided loss to eventual Class 3A state champion Lexington Catholic to knock off Beechwood in the second round of the playoffs.

 

Raceland has one of the state's better QBs in senior Scott Grizzle and has rolled since a 21-10 midseason loss to Lexington Christian. Raceland also benefited from the change in playoff formats - instead of hosting NewCath, District 5's #3 seed, in the first round, the Rams will host Paris, a team it beat 40-8 last week, in the postseason opener.

 

Regional finals prediction: For the complete 2006 BGP 1A Playoff Preview Click Here

 

 

Region 4

Favorite: Somerset

Top challengers: Pikeville, Harlan

 

Outlook: Somerset and Pikeville were each ranked in the BGP top 10 to start the season and have seemed for most of the season to be on a collision course to meet in the regional finals.

 

Both teams bring vastly different resumes to the table. Somerset started the season with four straight losses, three to good Class 3A clubs and the other to Danville, but has reeled off six straight wins with an ultra-explosive offense led by the state's most prolific QB-WR connection in Ross Deaton and John Cole.

 

Regional finals prediction: Somerset 33, Pikeville 28

 

Semifinal predictions

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Championship prediction

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