Parts of Kentucky are in a category 2 Slight Risk Area for strong to severe storms Friday afternoon into the evening hours. All hazards from severe storms could be seen by some. These are damaging winds, hail, flooding and a tornado or two. The Slight Risk Area is surrounded by a category 1 Marginal Risk Area.

 

 

This is the EHI(energy in the atmosphere for formation of severe storms) The time is from 2 pm Friday to 5 am EDT Saturday morning.

 

 

I will update in the morning.

I'm issuing a Severe Weather Alert Day for Friday afternoon into the evening hours. It appears that the severe weather threat has grown for parts of Kentucky. The Storm Prediction Center has issued a category 3 Enhanced Risk Area for parts of Southern Indiana and Kentucky. The area includes the following cities. Owensboro, Louisville, Frankfort and Bowling Green. There is also a category 2 Slight Risk Area that surrounds the Enhance Risk Area. That area is surrounded by a category 1 Marginal Risk Area.

 

Follow this link for an explanation of the different severe storm categories.

 

http://bluegrasspreps.com/weather/fyi-weather-alert-366152.html

 

 

 

Scattered severe thunderstorms associated with large hail, wind damage, and a tornado threat will be possible Friday afternoon and evening. Conditions in and around the following cities of Paducah, Evansville, IN and Louisville should be favorable for supercells with large hail. Hailstones of greater than 2 inches will be possible with the most intense cells. During the early evening, the conditions could be favorable for a tornado threat with the more dominant supercells. Storm coverage is expected to increase significantly by early evening. This should cause the wind damage threat to gradually increase during the late afternoon and early evening as supercells or bowing line segments move southeastward across Kentucky.

 

The models are in good agreement concerning Friday's scenario. The conditions will likely support a substantial severe weather threat.

 

This is from 7 am Friday to 2 am EDT Saturday Morning.

 

 

I will post an update later today.

The Storm Prediction Center has increased in size the category 3 Enhanced Risk Area to include all of Kentucky west of I-65. A category 2 Slight Risk Area is centered around the I-75 corridor while parts of Eastern Kentucky are in a category 1 Marginal Risk Area for strong to severe storms Friday afternoon into the evening hours.

 

 

A potentially significant severe thunderstorm event is possible on Friday. One or more clusters of storms will likely happen Friday Morning. Remnants of these clusters are expected to push east through the day. This will allow for moderate to strong destabilization in their wake.

 

Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop during the afternoon. The stronger storms could produce large hail potentially greater than 2 inches in diameter. Also damaging wind gust and a tornado or two.

 

Here is the simulated radar from 7 am Friday to 2 am EDT Saturday morning.

 

 

The following maps are all for the same time period as above.

 

EHI energy in the atmosphere for the development of severe storms

 

 

 

Possible Supercell development.

 

 

Areas that could see a significant tornado develop

 

 

I will be back with another update later today.

Thank you, really appreciate your reports.

Quick update.

 

Multiple rounds of storms are expected tomorrow

Scattered storms Friday morning with a few severe

Numerous storms Late Friday afternoon into the evening hours with many severe storms possible.

The best timing for the storms later in the day on Friday, for now, is 5 pm to 2 am Saturday morning. The threats look to be

 

Numerous Thunderstorms

Large hail up to 2 inches

Wind gusts 60-70 mph

A few tornadoes

Frequent lightning.

 

I will update early in the morning. This seems to be an unusually strong severe storm chance for July.

I'm closing this thread since the severe weather threat has increased more than yesterday.