Some of you guys that follow basketball analytics more than I do may be better able to explain the differences between RPI and BPI and which rating system you put more stock in. I just watch the games and root for the teams I like and against the teams I don't.

 

From my understanding, BPI is supposed to be a measure of how many points above average a team is and, according to ESPN, is the best predictor of a team's performance going forward. RPI is a ranking based upon a team's wins/losses and strength of schedule and doesn't factor in variables such point differentials in games or key injuries, etc... The BPI does take this factors into account, I believe. Am I right?

 

Anyway, I noticed that some schools had huge differences in their RPI versus BPI rankings. I went through both rankings for each of the 351 Division I schools and made note of who had the biggest differences. For example, if a team has an RPI of 45 and a BPI of 31 then their PPI (get it, R-B=P ) would be 45 -31 = 14.

 

Maybe a basketball analytics person could shed some light on what, if anything, this means. If a team has a 80 RPI and a 157 BPI , and hence a -77 PPI, does that mean that the team is probably not as good as their record shows ? On the other hand, if a team has a large positive PPI, does that suggest that maybe they are stronger than what their record indicates?

 

Here are the top six teams in each category ( positive and negative PPI's):

 

1. Northern Kentucky: -85

2. Washington St. : -83

3. Houston Baptist : -80

4. Texas A&M Corpus Christie : -77

5. San Diego : -72

6. UMKC : -71

 

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1. Hawaii : 122

2. Texas : 91

3. Missouri : 82

4. Oklahoma : 81

5. Loyola-Chicago : 76

6. Missouri State : 75

Not to be glib about it (especially with all the work you've put into it, and the fact that I'm like you, I don't know that much about the BPI), but they're statistics...in the end, you can make them say anything you want.

 

That's why, no matter what the stats and experts say, they still settle it on the court.