February 26, 20179 yr We maybe in for a multi-day severe weather event this upcoming Tuesday and Wednesday. Overnight Monday into Tuesday morning those who live along the Ohio River should see some showers and thunderstorms. The severe weather though looks to be Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday. My main area of concern for Tuesday is west of I-65. That area could seem temperatures in upper 60s and also dew points in the low to mid 60s on Tuesday. I will post more information later today. Tuesday Wednesday
February 26, 20179 yr Author Sunday evening update: It seems that that some have a good chance to see strong to severe storms. These look to happen on Tuesday afternoon then fire up again on Wednesday afternoon. On Tuesday the main areas to look for is in western Kentucky northeastward to northern Kentucky. Parts of Kentucky could see temperatures in the low to mid 60s on Tuesday. The dew points look to be higher than they were on Friday in the low to mid 60s. The possible storms will have more moisture in the atmosphere to work with. Damaging winds, hail and a few tornadoes will be possible. I will update in the morning. Dew point On Wednesday the threat will be further east in Kentucky. Much of the same threats for Tuesday will be there on Wednesday.
February 27, 20179 yr Author Monday morning update: The chance for strong to severe storms for Tuesday afternoon has increased. Parts of western Kentucky are now in and Enhanced Risk Area. The models are in good agreement for strong to severe storms Tuesday afternoon into the over night hours. One thing of concern is that this could be an overnight event. The supercell profile indicates that thunderstorms could produce significant tornadoes grows into the late nite hours. Damaging winds, large hail will also be possible. I will update later today. Wednesday morning 1 am EST Supercell Wednesday morning 1 am EST Significant Tornado
February 27, 20179 yr Author The risk then shifts eastward for Wednesday afternoon into the night time hours. Wednesday 1 pm EST
February 27, 20179 yr Author This week marks the 5th anniversary of the March 2,2012 Tornado outbreak. This is for informational purposes only. On the morning of March 2, 2012 low pressure was centered over southern Missouri with a warm front reaching east into the Ohio Valley. Showers and thunderstorms were scattered along the warm front, and produced hail to the size of nickels between 8am and 10:30am. By late morning the low had deepened and moved on to central Illinois. It had lifted the warm front out of our area, bringing an end to the morning thunderstorms. It also put southern Indiana and central Kentucky in the "warm sector" of the storm, meaning that we were positioned south of the warm front but east of the storm system's cold front, which at lunch time stretched from the low in central Illinois southward through Arkansas to Texas. As very strong winds aloft swept in from the Plains, with speeds to 115 mph around 18,000 feet above the surface, the first storms associated with the cold front popped just east of St Louis around 11am. As the front pushed east, more storms blossomed over southern Illinois and headed to the east. Temperatures over southern Indiana and central Kentucky had soared well into the 70s by midday, with southern Kentucky actually setting record highs in the lower 80s. The atmosphere had become very unstable with extremely strong wind shear (which is the change in direction and speed of wind with height). The unstable, juicy atmosphere would lead to storm development, and the wind shear would promote tornado development. March 2, 2
February 27, 20179 yr Author Just dropped in after looking at the latest model runs. If the trend continues I wouldn't be surprise to see the Enhanced Risk area extended up to northern Kentucky for Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. I also wouldn't be at all surprised if a Moderate Risk area is issued for all of southern Indiana and parts of Kentucky around and along the Ohio River.
February 28, 20179 yr Author As I thought they would. The Storm Prediction Center has expanded the Enhanced Risk Area into Indiana. I'm going into a Severe Weather Alert Day that will last into Wednesday. All new information will be in a new thread.
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