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Updated Maher Rankings; 8/23/15


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The rankings have been updated. Let us know your comments, here or on the site.

 

Maher Rankings | Category Archives: 2015 Kentucky Soccerrankings Kentucky | , Kentucky | ohio, Kentucky

 

Here is your top 20

 

Rank Team

1 Bowling Green

2 Trinity (Louisville)

3 Paul Laurence Dunbar

4 South Oldham

5 Henry Clay

6 Scott

7 Daviess County

8 St. Xavier

9 Covington Catholic

10 Tates Creek

11 Woodford County

12 Ballard

13 DuPont Manual

14 Newport Central Catholic

15 Montgomery County

16 Mercer County

17 South Warren

18 Central Hardin

19 St. Henry

20 Louisville Collegiate

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Sorry, but I've never been a big fan of your system. Bowling Green loses and is still #1 ? The team that beat them (Dunbar) lost 3-1 to South Oldham, who is undefeated. Shouldn't South Oldham be #1 ? St. X lost to John Hardin but is still a spot ahead of CovCath who won two games easily and tied #2 Trinity?

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Have to agree with GP. Your system rewards teams that "win", even if they play and win 9-0 against teams that haven't won a game ....more than rewarding teams that play competition.

 

Seems only correct the last two weeks of the season.....pretty useless, other than for bragging rights before that.

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Have to agree with GP. Your system rewards teams that "win", even if they play and win 9-0 against teams that haven't won a game ....more than rewarding teams that play competition.

 

Seems only correct the last two weeks of the season.....pretty useless, other than for bragging rights before that.

 

Pretty much any computer poll is going to be very inaccurate early in the season, and get much more accurate the later you get into the season.

 

I actually really appreciate this poll, because I don't follow soccer much, but I can check it out and get at least a reasonable idea of what kind of team a school has.

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But you actually get a feel for what a team "had" last season and not this season. Scott for example, is ranked as high as they are because of what they did last year. If they didn't lose all but 3 players, then they should be ranked that high.....not picking on the Eagles......next year the colonels will lose 22 seniors, right now 8 of the 11 are starters, and yet they will be ranked according to what they did and not what they have.

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This is a long one, grab a cup of coffee.

 

Well, I don't take too much exception to anything said except this,

 

"Your system rewards teams that "win", even if they play and win 9-0 against teams that haven't won a game ....more than rewarding teams that play competition."

 

and this:

 

"Seems only correct the last two weeks of the season.....pretty useless"

 

If it is granted the system is "correct" during the last two weeks and useless before that. You draw a mighty thin line between correct and useless. Check this chart out.

 

Maher Rankings | KY Boys Historical Prediction Rates thru 8/23/15KY Kentucky | KY, Kentucky | , Kentucky

 

You can see the performance of the boys system throughout the year for each of the last 6 years. For the boys you can see that the system generally tops out around 85% prediction rate for the last couple weeks, while it usually bottoms out around 77-80% prediction rate early in the year. Where do you draw that "useless" line, 82.5%?

 

The prior comment about not rewarding competition, however, is slightly less well-founded, and can be used to argue the South Oldham point just a little, though I don't argue with the point that South Oldham may be the best team (more on that below). South Oldham beat #49 Shelby County, #57 CAL and #1 42 Bryan Station in their first three games, and LOST a combined 0.30 scaled rating points. Not a whole lot, but they actually lost points because of playing over-matched competition. With their win against Dunbar, they picked up 1.11 scaled rating points in a single game. The reward for playing competition is solidly rooted in statistics, and generally accepted in the field. The win vs. Lafayette is solid for sure (they gained 0.3 pts), but probably couldn't be used to argue #1 even by a common sense method.

 

Clearly, at this point in the season, last year's performance is heavily weighted. Ever notice when the BCS first published their rankings? About halfway through the college football season. Why? Because publishing a ranking one tenth of the way through a season is impossible if you assume everyone is starting from scratch. And why would we start from scratch every year? Clearly Trinity and Dunbar are going to be better than most small schools in eastern KY where soccer is not played as much. We can make a more intelligent guess to start a season, but it will always be just that at the beginning of a season, a guess.

 

Several years ago, we didn’t publish until week 3 or so, to avoid most of this consternation. But the plain and simple fact is, it’s fun to track the performance of your team right from the start, even if it isn’t perfect at first.

 

This is a sticking point that I have written about before. It’s a tricky thing: Last year's performance weighs too heavily for some folk's satisfaction, but it has been optimized with probably a hundred different experimental methods performed on a database of about 15,000 games in KY, 70,000 games in Ohio, and another 100,000 or so KY basketball games. This method keeps predicting the best. Basically, when I try loosening things up a bit to react more quickly to this year's results, teams bounce around too quickly. For example, South Oldham might have jumped up to #1 with their great opening week, but a team at #1 27 or something catches a couple bad breaks and is dropped to #1 73! This type of change creates less arguing, but it isn’t as good. I don't know that there isn't room for improvement, there surely is, but for now this one is the winner, getting to around 85-90% by year’s end depending on the competitiveness of the group of teams.

 

So, by the common sense method, it’s hard to argue. South Oldham beat Dunbar, Dunbar beat Bowling Green, Trinity has a tie. If I was voting I might put them #1 , but I’m picking a #1 based on 3 data points! Is there another team out there who might be able to make a similar claim? Maybe. The Maher Rankings use every single game in the state as a data point. Over the long run, that’s what I’m going to go with.

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Well said! Any fans concerned with where they rank the last week of August might find better use of their time figuring out how to win the region for a change. Everyone in NKY knows who the best team is this year. If we forget, there are a number of helpful fans to remind us. :lol2: The rest of us are only hoping to be in the conversation for number 2. Since these ranking do not determine seeding or anything else that I can see, the only rankings I am concerned about are the final rankings.

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