There are not many 4th Region records in any time recent that I would claim to not know, but Monroe County accomplished something this season that I am not certain of how long it has been since it occurred. The Falcons ran through their regular season unbeaten against 4th Region teams, and I cannot tell you the last time a team outside the 14th District accomplished that. It is very rare and Monroe County is to be applauded for it. I point that out so you may understand that it is a no-brainer that they are the clear cut favorite for the 15th District crown. That’s not to say they’re incapable of being beaten, but that judging from the results of this season, it seems quite unlikely. Only Allen County-Scottsville’s 64-63 nailbiter result shows vulnerability within the district, the only district contest Monroe County did not win by double digits. Oh, and the tournament is at Monroe County where the Falcons have not lost since last January.

 

To the matchups.....

 

15th District Tournament at Monroe County High School

February 24th

#1 Monroe County vs. #4 Glasgow – This is a rematch of last season’s district semifinals, which Monroe County narrowly escaped as the top seed, 67-64 in overtime. That season they split with the Scotties and had actually lost to them by double digits during the year. We actually predicted a Glasgow upset but came up just short. So does that mean Glasgow has a shot this season? No, it does not mean that and no, they do not. Sadly, Glasgow has been in complete disarray this season, stumbling to a 4-22 record and losing to Monroe County three times by an average of 35 points per game. Expect the same here.

 

Prediction: Monroe County by 35

 

February 25th

#2 Barren County vs. #3 Allen County-Scottsville – Since the previous game was a rematch of last year, naturally this is as well. In fact, be it in the semifinals or finals, this is the fourth straight year these teams will meet. All three previous matchups were won by the Trojans, which isn’t a good omen for Allen County-Scottsville. Neither is what occurred in the last meeting of the two teams, a 65-48 blowout win for Barren County on the road at AC/S back on January 23rd. This was after the Patriots were game in an 88-83 triple overtime thriller back in early December that earned our game of the week honors. The Patriots had a strong start to the year relatively speaking. They went 0-3 against a competitive schedule, but then reeled off 7 straight wins and overall won 11 of 14. But since mid-January the needle moved in the other direction, and they are just 3-8 in their last 11 games. Even the wins have been suspect, coming against teams that are a combined 14-64, and none were even by double digits. This is a team that was in desperate need of some momentum coming into the postseason, but it is not going to happen thanks to the snow. The Patriots do have two of the top scorers in the region in big man Dylan Haper (19.6 PPG) and Jake Sikes (15.0 PPG), and they’ll need them to come up big. Barren County meanwhile has been chugging along as they usually do, posting another 20 win season and a strong 16-4 record in their last 20 games. Their only region losses have been to four of the top teams in the region, Monroe County (twice), Bowling Green, Warren Central, and Russell County. Barren County is the type of team that can bury you in a hurry if they heat up from outside, led by sharpshooter Wade Coomer, who has made 47 treys on the season and averages 18.8 points per game. Nick Mabe helps shoulder the load with a 13.2 PPG clip as well. Ultimately, it is hard to see AC/S pulling the upset with the way their last month and a half has gone.

 

Prediction: Barren County by 12

 

February 27th

Predicted Matchup #1 Monroe County vs. #2 Barren County – The undefeated region campaign for Monroe County is a true feather in their cap, but it isn’t the game they’re really hunting. They’re out for titles, and that begins with the district title. They have not won one since moving over to the 15th District in 2006, last winning a district crown back in 2004 when they were in the 16th District. It’s been a long, long wait, and there’s nowhere better for them to try to do it than on their home court. We predict they’ll have to go through Barren County to do it, and the Trojans are the three time defending district champions, which includes a bit of an upset victory by the Trojans over Monroe County a year ago. The Falcons have the KABC player of the year in Dillon Geralds, who can play just about anywhere on the floor. When he gets hot he will have no conscience about where he shoots it from and you can bet he’ll make them. He can play the post, the wing, up top, anywhere. He’s surrounded by perimeter shooters that have helped the Falcons to a modest 35% clip from three, and four players have made 30 or more treys. It makes the Falcons very difficult to guard and is why they boast one of the state’s highest scoring margins with an average victory of over 14 PPG. They are tournament tested thanks to their run through the region’s All A tournament and a run to the finals of the state tournament. They have experience in close games too, winning a trio of games against one of the region’s best - Clinton County - by a combined 5 points. Simply put, the Falcons can play any way they need to, and they are the class of the district. After they get this trophy, they’ll look for more at Diddle.

 

Prediction: Monroe County by 9

On a self deprecating note, I looked over my predictions a few times this year to make sure I didn't repeat last year's mistake, where I accidentally put that Barren County would win every game played. That included a game they were not playing in......