January 17, 201511 yr Looks like we maybe settling into a quiet weather pattern for the next week. Both the temperature and precipitation outlook call for around normal conditions for both. The normal highs for this time period is around 41 and the low is around 22. We usually have around .53 of an inch of precip during this time. It seems we may see temperatures below normal in the 8-14 day outlook(Jan.24-30) to close out January. Highs usually run around 46 by the end of this month and the lows around 29. Precipitation is around .63 of an inch. On the bright side we may be on the dry side by the close of January. Now let me say this there could be some anomalies that, for a short time period, change this outlook. Also this is not a forecast. Just info for everyone to look at. If anything pops up on the horizon storm wise I will, of course, post the information as quick as I can. Take care and enjoy this nice January weekend.
January 17, 201511 yr Author Just took at look at the new GFS model. When I say new I mean it has been upgraded today. Right on cue with the 8-14 day outlook it is showing the possibility of snow on Monday the 26th. Remember I said the POSSIBILITY snow. This doesn't mean will see any. From the NWS-The upgrade more than doubles the resolution of short- to medium-range forecasts. This improvement uses more detailed topography, and thus will provide forecasters with more detailed information about precipitation, temperature, and winds so that they can provide more, accurate and reliable forecasts.
January 17, 201511 yr Because of the lack of winter/snow, is this shaping up to be a heavy rain, high risk of tornados forecast for spring? Seems as though that is always the punishment for no winter
January 17, 201511 yr Author Because of the lack of winter/snow, is this shaping up to be a heavy rain, high risk of tornados forecast for spring? Seems as though that is always the punishment for no winter While I don't have any data to back it up I have the same concerns.
January 17, 201511 yr Author I found this little tidbit on the Kentucky Climate Center's site. Thunderstorms are an important element of Kentucky's climate. They can occur through the year but are most common in warmer months. The number of thunderstorm days averages about 55 in the west and closer to 40 in the east. While thunderstorms are a vital source of rainfall in the summer season, they can also bring severe weather, including damaging winds, hail, and tornadoes. Fewer than ten tornadoes are recorded in most years. Tornadoes are most frequent in April, but can occur in any month.
January 18, 201511 yr Author Because of the lack of winter/snow, is this shaping up to be a heavy rain, high risk of tornados forecast for spring? Seems as though that is always the punishment for no winter I just looked at the outlooks for the March, April, May period. As of now it shows us having a chance of above normal temperatures and a equal chance of normal precipitation. That means it could be a 50/50 chance of above or below the normal precipitation amounts for Kentucky. The above normal temps are a reason for concern for me but there is nothing definite showing. We'll just have to keep a close eye on the situation as we get closer.
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