BGP First 2026-27 Winter Outlook

The developing El Niño is becoming a major player heading into winter, and this is shaping up to be a very strong event. For Kentucky, that points toward a winter that is likely to be wetter and milder overall, but that doesn't mean we can forget about snow and ice.

The early call is for temperatures to average about 1 to 3 degrees above normal across Kentucky this winter. December could start relatively mild, while January may bring the biggest swings in temperature. February could turn milder again, although winter weather threats will remain possible.

Precipitation should run near to or above normal. A strong El Niño typically favors an active storm track across the southern United States and Ohio Valley, which could put Kentucky in the path of several storm systems.

The big question will be temperatures when those storms arrive.

Western Kentucky may have a difficult time seeing prolonged snow, with more rain and mixed precipitation expected. Central Kentucky could go back and forth between rain, snow, sleet, and freezing rain, depending on the track of each storm. Eastern Kentucky and the higher elevations may have a better opportunity for accumulating snow. Northern Kentucky and the Cincinnati area could also see several opportunities for snow and ice when colder air settles into the Ohio Valley.

One or two significant winter storms cannot be ruled out. A strong storm moving through the Ohio Valley at the same time Arctic air is in place could produce a substantial snow or ice event across portions of Kentucky.

So, for now, I'm expecting a mild, wet, and active winter rather than a consistently cold winter.

Temperature: Above normal
Precipitation: Near to above normal
Snowfall: Near normal overall
Ice: Above-normal potential
Major winter storm potential: Higher than normal
Coldest period: Most likely January into early February

The current El Niño has the potential to become stronger than most of these historical events. That makes the 1982-83, 1997-98, and 2015-16 winters especially useful comparisons.