Looks like another stormy day across Kentucky. Storms will likely be moving into the region from the northwest, with some activity possible this morning before things become more active later today.

The atmosphere will be very warm, humid, and unstable, so any storms that can get organized could become strong. The biggest concern will be damaging straight-line winds, especially if storms form into a larger cluster or line. A few storms could also produce large hail, with an isolated tornado not completely out of the question.

The tricky part today will be figuring out exactly where the storms track. Early storms could leave boundaries behind that influence where additional storms develop this afternoon.

Overall, the afternoon into early evening looks like the timeframe to watch most closely. Western and central Kentucky could see storms first, with activity spreading southeast through the rest of the state.

Not everyone will see severe weather, but there is enough instability and storm organization potential to make this a day worth watching.

Update:

Storms will be possible across Kentucky today, with a few becoming strong to severe later this afternoon and evening. A cluster of storms moving through the Midwest this morning will be the main feature to watch. Some of that activity could push into Indiana and Kentucky early in the day. If those storms leave behind a lot of cloud cover and cooler air, that could limit how unstable things become across the state.

Still, it will be a very warm and humid day, and the atmosphere should become unstable enough for additional storms to develop or intensify later today. The biggest threat from any stronger storms will be damaging straight-line winds, with large hail also possible. A brief tornado can't be ruled out, but that does not appear to be the main concern at this time.

For Kentucky, the late-afternoon through evening hours look to be the timeframe to watch most closely. Storm coverage and the exact location of the stronger storms will depend heavily on how the morning activity evolves.

A severe weather watch may be issued soon for the portion of Kentucky inside the blue line.

Mesoscale Discussion 1953

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

1252 PM CDT Wed Aug 12 2026

Areas affected...central and southern Indiana into central Kentucky

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 575...

Valid 121752Z - 121945Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 575

continues.

SUMMARY...The damaging wind threat is expected to spread south

across the discussion area this afternoon with the potential for

significant gusts up to 75 mph. Some potential exists for a brief

tornado or two. A new watch will likely be required over portions of

far southern Indiana into central Kentucky.

DISCUSSION...Recent trends in volumetric radar data indicate deeper

convective updrafts forming on the western flank of the MCS, near

Terre Haute. That area coincides with where the MCS intersects a

residual outflow boundary that extends south-southeast into

south-central KY. Low-level convergence/ascent along that boundary

in conjunction with the influx of a moderately to strongly unstable

air mass from the west is expected to support further storm

intensification this afternoon over portions of central and southern

IN. Damaging winds with localized gusts up to 75 mph will be the

primary hazard. Some brief tornado potential may materialize to the

immediate east of the outflow boundary, where locally backed

near-surface winds enhance low-level shear.

The severe threat is expected to spread south of the current watch

area in far southern IN into central KY, where a new watch will

likely be required.

These from HRRR show a possible window from 4 pm to midnight before the storms just about clear Kentucky