Enso Transitioning from La Niña to Enso-Neutral February-April, 2026

El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) conditions are one of several variables that can affect tornado activity in Kentucky. Sea surface temperatures in the central Pacific are usually neither unusually warm nor cold when the ENSO is in a neutral phase (neither El Niño nor La Niña).

The climate is typically more variable under neutral ENSO conditions, which can affect tornado frequency and severity in the following ways:

Severe Weather in the Spring: In Kentucky, tornadoes are most likely to happen in the spring, especially from March to May. Depending on other atmospheric factors such as the position of the jet stream and the amount of moisture present, springtime in neutral ENSO years may see a higher frequency of severe thunderstorms, including tornadoes.

Climatology:

Unpredictable weather patterns are frequently the result of neutral conditions. Because of favorable conditions (such as strong low-pressure systems or warm, humid air colliding with colder air masses), tornadoes may occur more frequently in some years than in others.

Storm Tracks:

Storm tracks and related severe weather events may differ from year to year due to the lack of a significant El Niño or La Niña influence. Neutral weather can sometimes contribute to calmer seasons and other times to more active tornado seasons.

Kentucky's Historical Tornado Data (Neutral ENSO Years)
1. Neutral ENSO in 2014

In 2014, there were eighteen tornadoes in Kentucky. The largest outbreak happened on April 28, when Kentucky and the Midwest and Southeast were impacted by a massive severe weather system. Numerous EF2 tornadoes were caused by this outbreak.

Tornado Season: As is typical for Kentucky, April saw the most activity. Given the neutral ENSO conditions, the tornado count was comparatively normal for the state.

2. Neutral ENSO in 2017

In 2017, there were sixteen tornadoes in Kentucky. On March 1, there was a significant outbreak that affected areas of Kentucky, Tennessee, and Mississippi with multiple powerful tornadoes (EF2-EF3).

Tornado Season: Although there were a few more tornadoes than usual during this season, they were dispersed throughout the spring. With a few powerful tornadoes, March and April had the highest tornado activity.

3. Neutral ENSO in 2020

Tornadoes: There were eighteen tornadoes in Kentucky. The state was hit by an EF3 tornado on March 2, which was the biggest event.

Tornado Season: The busiest months were March and April. With the most tornadoes occurring in the early spring, the tornado activity in 2020 was largely in line with neutral ENSO patterns. During this period, there were multiple powerful tornadoes in the state.

4. Neutral ENSO in 2023

Tornadoes: In 2023, a comparatively mild year for the state, Kentucky recorded 11 tornadoes. The most notable tornadoes occurred in April 2023, but none of them had an EF4 or greater intensity.

Tornado Season: Tornado activity was somewhat below average despite the neutral ENSO, probably because there weren't many especially favorable conditions for tornadoes in the spring.

Frequency of Tornadoes in Years with Neutral ENSO

In Kentucky, tornado activity typically peaks in March, April, and May during neutral ENSO years.

In Kentucky, there are typically 15 to 20 tornadoes per neutral ENSO year.

Outbreaks are still possible, especially in April, when tornado formation is most likely due to severe weather.

In summary:

Based on past data, tornado activity in Kentucky should fall within the normal range for neutral ENSO years in 2026: