BGP Forecast for the Start of March

Forecast for February 20 to March 4:

Temperature:

Kentucky will likely experience near- to above-normal temperatures over the coming days. This is supported by the consensus of the ECMWF, GEFS, and Canadian ensemble forecasts. The northern and central parts of the state may experience slightly cooler conditions due to the influence of the negative 500-hPa height anomalies over the northern CONUS, particularly affecting the Northern Plains, Upper Mississippi Valley, and Great Lakes. However, most of Kentucky is expected to remain mild.

Probabilities for above-normal temperatures are highest for the southwestern CONUS, which could extend into the southern part of Kentucky.

Precipitation:

Near- to above-normal precipitation is expected for much of Kentucky. The forecast indicates favorable conditions for precipitation across most of the CONUS, including Kentucky, with near-normal to slightly above-normal chances. The ridge over the western CONUS should bring drier conditions to parts of the region, but Kentucky’s central and eastern regions should see adequate rainfall.

There are no strong signals indicating significant dry spells, so regular precipitation, possibly with moderate intensity, is anticipated.

General Weather Pattern:

A ridge of high pressure will be situated over the southwestern and south-central CONUS, which may keep Kentucky in relatively mild weather, particularly in the southern regions.

A trough over the northern CONUS may influence temperatures and precipitation, especially in the northern parts of Kentucky, where slightly cooler temperatures and enhanced precipitation chances may be felt.

Summary:

Kentucky should expect near-normal to slightly above-normal temperatures over the 6-10 day period. Precipitation is likely to be near to slightly above normal, with moderate rainfall in most areas, particularly in central and eastern Kentucky. The southern and western parts of the state may be slightly warmer due to the ridge pattern, while the northern regions may experience cooler temperatures due to the broader northern trough.