The severe weather, including potential tornadoes, large hail, and damaging winds, will primarily impact several cities in Kentucky. Some cities that may be affected include Louisville, Lexington, Frankfort, Bowling Green, Richmond, Paducah, Owensboro, Elizabethtown, Maysville, Ashland, and Morehead.

These cities, particularly Louisville, Lexington, and Bowling Green, could experience the strongest storms between late morning and early afternoon. The threat of severe weather will move northeastward, so cities like Ashland and Maysville may face more significant impacts as the day progresses.

The Cincinnati/NKY area will also be affected by the severe weather as it moves northeastward. The city could experience damaging wind gusts, large hail, and potentially even tornadoes as the storm system reaches Ohio later in the afternoon and evening. The strongest impacts for Cincinnati are expected between the afternoon and early evening hours. Stay aware of any watches or warnings, especially for tornadoes and damaging winds, as the storm system moves across the region

 

 

 

 

 

The severe threat has increased;

The forecast for Kentucky and Cincinnati today calls for increasingly severe weather through the day, with the highest risk in the afternoon and early evening.

There will be a significant tornado threat, especially in areas south of I-70 and near I-64 (southern Illinois, southern Indiana). While Kentucky is on the periphery of the highest threat, there is still a notable risk of tornado development, particularly in northern Kentucky. Tornadoes could be strong (EF2+), and several tornadoes may occur, particularly in the afternoon and early evening hours. Strong, gusty winds up to 60-70 mph are also possible with thunderstorms. Large hail (up to 2 inches in diameter) will be a secondary concern but still possible.

Storms will begin to intensify in eastern Missouri by late morning and will reach Kentucky and Cincinnati by mid- to late afternoon. Southern Illinois and southern Indiana will see the first round of severe storms, followed by increasing risk for areas of northern Kentucky and southwestern Ohio by late afternoon and evening. Expect discrete supercells to form near the I-70 corridor, and these storms may move into northern Kentucky and the Cincinnati metro area. These supercells could last for several hours.

The severe risk for the Kentucky and Cincinnati area will likely peak from early afternoon to early evening. The primary risk will be tornadoes, damaging winds, and large hail, especially in Kentucky north of I-64, but other areas should also stay alert. As the evening progresses, storm intensity may decrease slightly.

Temperatures will be in the mid-50s to low 60s°F, with surface dewpoints in the low to mid-50s°F. The low-level moisture feeding into the warm sector will enhance storm development later in the afternoon.

In summary, be prepared for severe thunderstorms, including tornadoes, damaging winds, and large hail, especially from early afternoon to early evening. 

 

 

 

I just received notification of a conference call with the NWS-Louisville office at 11 am EST.

 

 

from the conference call. Tornadoes of EF-2 to EF3 intensity and destructive wind gusts of 75 mph or more are likely to be seen by those in the yellow. The worst-case scenario for potential tornado formation is represented by the enlarged hatched area. Therefore, residents of the hatched area should remain vigilant. Those near the Ohio River should also be on the lookout. The conference call host stated that he anticipates the level 3 enhanced area to be extended in the direction of Kentucky. 

 

The tornado and hail threat has increased for those in the area confined north of I-64 and west of I-75.

 

 

 

This morning, I suppose, was a good day to recertify my NWS-Louisville spotter training.