On Monday afternoon, a short-wave trough will be located just east of the Rockies. As it progresses eastward, it is expected to strengthen and give rise to a low-pressure system near Texas. The trough will transition from a positive to a neutral and then to a slightly negative tilt, as indicated by the 500 mb height anomaly maps. 

During this shift, the low-pressure system will intensify as it approaches Kentucky, pulling in warm moisture from the Gulf. Precipitation is anticipated to begin on Tuesday afternoon or early evening. Snow may develop along the Ohio River, while freezing rain could occur in the region between I-64 and the Cumberland Parkway.

Areas further south may experience rain. The arctic air circulating around the low will likely convert all precipitation to snow before it wraps up on Wednesday evening or early Thursday. 

While it's challenging to forecast total accumulations at this stage, the heaviest snowfall is expected to occur near and along the Ohio River. Additionally, there is a potential for freezing rain and ice accumulations south of I-64. The precise path of the system remains uncertain, and any shift to the north or south could

 

short-wave trough

Shortwave trough positive tilt

 

neutral to negative tilt

 

 

 

 

Regarding the system that will impact our region from Tuesday night until early Wednesday morning, both the GFS and the Euro are in agreement. The GFS may have the storm linger in Kentucky a bit longer than the Euro, but that's the only difference I've noticed.

For now, as I posted in my original post. I think most of the possible snow accumulations will be from around I-64 northward. 

 

 

 

 Low-Pressure System Moving Through Tuesday

A low-pressure system will bring a mix of snow and rain to the region from Tuesday into Tuesday evening. Snow will be possible in southern/central Indiana early Tuesday morning, transitioning to rain/snow by the afternoon. Uncertainty remains for the rain/snow dividing line, especially in north-central Kentucky and southern Indiana.

As of now, it appears that the heaviest snow accumulations will be north of I-64.

Light snow accumulations are possible in areas seeing extended snowfall. Stay tuned for updates!

 

NWS-Wilmington, OH

 

 

 

 

NWS-Louisville, KY