New Year, New Cold: What to Expect from January’s First Full Week

For Kentucky, the January 6–8 period is shaping up as a high-variability window consistent with a weak La Niña winter pattern. The overall threat level is moderate, not because of a major snowstorm, but due to a high-impact transition from extreme cold to heavy moisture.

From January 2–5, a significant cold snap is expected with lows in the 10s to upper teens. This prolonged cold will deepen the frost line in road surfaces. Even as air temperatures rise early next week, pavement temperatures will lag behind, remaining frozen longer than expected.

On Tuesday morning, January 6, Gulf moisture will overspread the region while cold air is still retreating. This setup supports a 3- to 6-hour window of freezing rain or sleet, especially across central Kentucky, including Louisville, Lexington, and Richmond. The greatest impacts are expected during the morning commute, with bridges and overpasses becoming slick first.

By Wednesday into Thursday, January 7–8, warmer air should fully take over, with temperatures climbing into the 40s and low 50s. The primary concern then shifts to heavy rainfall falling on frozen or saturated ground. Limited infiltration will lead to increased runoff, ponding on roadways, and localized flooding issues.

This pattern reflects a classic weak La Niña signal, with frequent intrusions of cold air from Canada colliding with surges of warm, moist Gulf air. Kentucky often ends up near this boundary, resulting in messy ice-to-rain transitions rather than clean winter storms.

Kentuckians should not be misled by rising air temperatures. The highest risks are slick, frozen pavement during the Tuesday morning transition and runoff-related impacts later in the week as heavy rain overspreads partially frozen ground.

I'll provide an update sometime on Thursday. This is just a preliminary outlook.