On Tuesday, parts of the Lower Ohio Valley may get a few strong to severe storms. The Lower Ohio Valley will continue to have thunderstorms during the morning. Small hail and isolated large hail are possible with this morning activity. Upper 50s to low 60s dewpoints will move northward ahead of the cold front in the wake of the morning's activity. Moderate instability amid steepening lapse rates and strong effective shear may result in a few supercells capable of primarily large hail during the afternoon/early evening. Where surface-based instability is most likely, some tornado threat will exist. As of now I think the area that may see the best chance of seeing a tornado is in western Kentucky.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

We’re watching for storms to develop this afternoon and evening. Most of them will be capable of producing hail, which is the main concern today.

A small tornado risk may develop late in the day, mainly near the area where the Mississippi and Ohio Rivers meet. This would happen only if a few storms are able to tap into warmer, more humid air returning to the region.

We do not expect widespread severe weather, but stay weather-aware, especially later this afternoon and evening. Keep an eye on warnings and be ready to take shelter if needed.

 

 

 

 

Southern Indiana and a section of western Kentucky appear to be the areas most likely to experience severe weather later today. The majority of Kentucky will see thunderstorms.

 

 

 

 

Update:

 

Storms are ongoing late this morning on both sides of the Ohio River, from southeast Indiana into western and northern Kentucky. These storms may push the warm, humid air a bit farther south for a while, but moisture is still increasing across the Ozarks. A weather disturbance over Iowa and northern Missouri will move toward the Ohio Valley today, gradually weakening. As it does, warmer and more humid air is expected to spread northward into the lower Ohio Valley.

This afternoon, new storms are likely to redevelop in far southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, and western Kentucky. Exactly where depends on how current storms behave and how much sunshine breaks through.

Where storms do form, the atmosphere will have enough instability and strong winds aloft to support severe storms. Any long-lived storm could produce hail and damaging winds. Some storms north of the warm front may stay elevated but could still produce hail.

If warm, unstable air can move far enough north, there may also be a small chance of a tornado or two.

Forecasters have increased the threat level to a slight risk (level 2 of 5) for parts of the Lower Ohio Valley and Mid-Mississippi Valley this afternoon and evening. This upgrade is mainly due to a higher chance of storms producing large hail.

Satellite images show growing clouds over southeast Missouri near a weak front and small area of low pressure. As temperatures rise and humidity increases through the afternoon, the atmosphere will become more favorable for thunderstorms to develop along a boundary ahead of the front.

Any storms that form will move into an environment with strong winds high in the atmosphere and enough instability to support rotating thunderstorms, known as supercells. These storms could produce large hail and pockets of strong, damaging wind. While less likely, a couple of tornadoes are also possible if any strong, well-organized storms develop.

Farther north, the area with a marginal risk (level 1 of 5) has been expanded slightly to account for a continued risk of hail from storms forming above the surface.

 

 

 

 

You can understand why the threat level for western Kentucky was raised by the Storm Prediction Center.