Friday night, southeasterly winds on the leading edge of a neutrally tilted trough that will dig deeply southward during the day on Saturday will markedly increase surface dewpoints in the lower to mid-60s F. Moderate instability is expected to develop early in the day on Saturday across parts of the moist sector, where moderate to strong deep-layer shear will be in place. Thunderstorms that form along and near the axis of strongest instability should pose a severe threat. Supercells with severe wind gusts, hail, and tornado potential will be possible. The magnitude of the severe threat will be greatest in areas that remain unaffected by morning thunderstorm activity.

The Storm Prediction Center has portions of western Kentucky under a 15% risk for strong to severe storms in their day outlook. This is the equivalent of a level 2 slight risk area. I will be updating as we get closer to the weekend. 

 

 

An area of thunderstorms is likely to be ongoing Saturday morning across parts of eastern Oklahoma and southwest Missouri. Ahead of this convection, moist air (dew points in the low 60s) and surface heating will contribute to a moderately unstable air mass by midday. Thunderstorm development appears likely in the early afternoon over much of the Ozarks and will move towards western Kentucky, suggesting a severe threat will be probable during the afternoon/early evening. Wind damage will be possible with bowing line segments, and low-level shear should be sufficient for tornadoes. Hail will also be possible, mainly if supercells can develop. Storm mode still remains uncertain. If the mode goes linear early in the event, the wind-damage threat could become dominant.
 

Late Saturday and early Sunday will see the passage of a powerful cold front across the area. Along the front, a line of thunderstorms and showers is anticipated. Expect windy, rainy weather on Sunday. This is the anticipated effect of Saturday's storms. gusts of 20–30 mph on Saturday afternoon and 30–40 mph on Sunday outside of storms. There could be some severe storms. Spin-up tornadoes and destructive straight-line winds appear to be the primary severe threats.