La Niña conditions are present and favored to persist from December 2025 to February 2026.

 

 

How La Niña changes the jet stream

La Niña is caused by cooler-than-average sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean. This shifts the normal pattern of tropical rainfall and wind, which then affects the jet streams. 
Weaker subtropical jet stream: The southern branch of the jet stream, which normally brings moisture to the southern U.S. during El Niño, is weaker and less reliable.
Stronger and more variable polar jet stream: The northern polar jet stream is more amplified and dips lower across the northern U.S., allowing for more frequent cold air outbreaks.
Northern storm track: The main storm track is guided northward into the Pacific Northwest and Ohio Valley. 
How does this affect our weather here in Kentucky? It could mean we could see a cooler and wetter than average winter.

Snowfall amounts are difficult to predict due to the complex nature of weather systems. We could see variable winter precipitation types from snow to freezing rain/ice accumulations. 
 

I should have mentioned that this La Niña is currently expected to be weak, which complicates the prediction of potential winter weather. 

A La Niña advisory has been issued by the Climate Prediction Center. This indicates that within the next six months, a La Niña is anticipated to form. I therefore looked at the Climate Prediction Center's three-month precipitation anomalies and frequency of occurrence outlook. January, February, and March of 2026 are covered by this.

To display a typical structure, such as a composite of all winter storms, a composite analysis averages weather data from numerous similar events. According to climate analysis, a trend is the way that a weather variable, such as temperature or precipitation, has changed over several decades.

They both show a 60-80% chance of above-normal precipitation for Kentucky. Of course there is no way of predicting snow or freezing rain/ice accumulations this far in advance. Also some of the precipitation could be in the form of rain. We could be in for an active start of winter in 2026. You can see the maps below.

Here's a reminder of the typical La Niña jet stream. In a typical La Niña, a blocking high-pressure system forms in the Gulf of Alaska and northern Pacific. The high pressure acts as a "blocker," redirecting storm tracks and steering cooler, Arctic air south.  As mentioned in my previous post, this could mean a wetter and colder winter for the Ohio Valley. 

 

 

 

It is predicted that a weak La Niña will persist until approximately February 2026. The Climate Prediction Center has released its most recent three-month forecasts. The typical La Niña pattern is forming, as you can see. The Ohio Valley will experience above-average precipitation throughout the entire winter. With an equal chance of either above or below normal temperatures.  Each of these systems' tracks could be impacted by a variety of factors. This implies that our region may experience a variety of winter precipitation.  This winter, we might be in for a crazy ride. Time will tell.