A shortwave trough is associated with ongoing convection over the Mid-South/lower OH Valley this morning. Multiple clusters should develop and gradually
strengthen through the afternoon as they spread northeastward across a weakly unstable air mass. Daytime heating should still promote some risk for isolated to scattered damaging winds with these clusters. Most guidance shows a greater concentration of strong convection across parts of central/eastern KY into Ohio this afternoon/early evening, in close proximity to the mid-level shortwave trough. A slight risk has been included across this area given increased confidence in a corridor of scattered damaging wind potential.

 

 

This HRRR radar simulation is from 12 pm EDT to 8 am EDT Tuesday.

The most recent 24-hour GEFS ensemble maps are shown here. This primarily depicts a potentially damaging wind event. Five percent chance of hail. Even while the likelihood of a tornado is very low, it is still not zero. This is evident in an area drawn on the tornado probability map.

 

 

 

This is the tornado warning that I received at 5:20 pm EDT. Real close if not in the circle area on the tornado probability map.