Throughout the region, afternoon temperatures should rise into the 80s and 90s due to diurnal heating. Perhaps as far north as southern Ohio, surface dewpoint temperatures are in the mid-60s, so this heating will provide CAPE levels that are more unstable than 2000 J/kg in the region. CAPE levels of around 1000 J/kg are needed for thunderstorms. The higher the CAPE level, the better the chance for strong to severe storms.

By the late afternoon, thunderstorms should form in response to atmospheric conditions. Supercellular structures may be seen in early thunderstorms due to the level of instability and effective layer shear. Nonetheless, it is anticipated that thunderstorms will encourage upscale growth toward linear segments due to temperature-dewpoint spreads of about 20°F+. As a result, thunderstorms may initially threaten hail, particularly in western Kentucky and Tennessee, but they should eventually shift to a greater wind threat as they move eastward. 

   As thunderstorms form close to the surface boundary, a short-window, conditional tornado hazard may emerge across parts of southern Ohio and Kentucky. Strong northeasterly surface winds will increase low-level hodographs, supporting at least some tornado activity as thunderstorms interact with or cross over the boundary.

 

 

 

 

 

Based on the modeling data available now. On Friday night, there seems to be a low-end tornado threat. Right now, from 7 to 11 p.m. EDT. The atmosphere appears to be in an adequate position for any individual cell that forms to rotate, potentially producing a tornado or two.

It is impossible to pinpoint the precise location of these potential individual cells. You can select a location on the map below, and a tornado could form within 25 miles of that location.

Later in the day, check back for the latest updates.