This afternoon and tonight, further showers and thunderstorms are predicted for the entire area. The greatest concern from several of the storms might be damaging winds, and some of them could be strong to severe.

 

Additionally, flash floods may occur as a result of the storms' potential for torrential rainfall. It appears that the Bluegrass region of central Kentucky and southeast Indiana have the highest chance of flash flooding.

 

 

 

 

Mesoscale Discussion 1699
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1253 PM CDT Thu Jul 17 2025

   Areas affected...portions of the Ohio River Valley

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 171753Z - 172000Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

   SUMMARY...Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected along a
   stalled front over the OH valley. A few of these thunderstorm
   clusters may produce occasional damaging gusts. A WW is unlikely.

   DISCUSSION...As of 1745 UTC (1:45 pm EDT), regional radar and visible imagery
   showed scattered thunderstorms increasing in coverage and intensity
   across much of the OH Valley region. Driven largely by strong
   heating along a broad stalled frontal zone, a very warm and humid
   air mass will continue to destabilize through the afternoon. With
   MLCAPE of 2000-3000 J/kg, scattered to numerous thunderstorms are
   expected. Vertical shear is weak, but some organization into loose
   clusters is possible as local outflows consolidate with time. 

   Storm coverage should be maximized ahead of several small-scale
   features along the front such as the remnant MCV over eastern
   MO/southern IL and a localized convergence zone across eastern IN
   northern KY and southwest OH. Radar and CAM trends show a few
   stronger storms emanating from these clusters. With steep low-level
   lapse rates and high PWs (1.9-2.1 inches) occasional stronger
   downdrafts capable of damaging gusts of 45-60 mph are possible.

   While some local increase in the severe risk is possible over the
   next few hours, general storm organization still appears limited due
   to the lack of greater vertical shear and synoptic-scale forcing.
   Thus, a WW is unlikely.