For the past few days, I have been monitoring the modeling data for next Wednesday. It is indicating that the conditions for the development of strong to severe storms may be present. A warm front will lift towards the north and bring warm, moist, humid air into our area by a low-pressure system as a negatively tilted trough moves closer. The mid-seventies to low-eighties will be the temperature range. West of I-65, dew points will be in the low to mid-70s. Dew points will be in the mid-60s east of I-65. I've seen CAPE numbers as high as 3,500 J/kg. The atmosphere will be unstable and primed for severe weather as a result. All that is needed is a trigger. That could be a cold front that will trail from the low-pressure system and move in through Kentucky during the day into the nighttime hours. While it is too early for the precise time, these simulations are from 8 am EDT Wednesday to 5 am EDT Thursday. I'll be monitoring this situation and posting updates as we get closer.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Wanted to post a quick update. The ridge that will be causing the summer-like temperatures today is blocking the system that I was watching last week. So the severe threat for Wednesday doesn't look like it will come to fruition. The next chance for severe weather appears to be on Friday. The Storm Prediction Center already has a 15% chance for western Kentucky. This is equal to a slight risk area. I'll post more on that later.