I'm going to go ahead and issue a BGP Severe Weather Alert Day for tomorrow. The reason is that the severe weather threat is increasing. I'm seeing CAPE readings as high or maybe a little higher than last Friday's. 

Louisville 3891 J/kg

Bowling Green 3272 J/kg

Richmond 4578 J/kg

As everyone can see, there is a possibility of a very unstable environment for Tuesday afternoon. Here is the information I got from the Storm Prediction Center for tomorrow.

Remnant storms from Monday will likely be ongoing at the beginning of the period from the Midwest into the Ohio Valley, with the potential for some ongoing strong to severe storms.

By early afternoon, moderate to perhaps severe instability is expected to spread throughout the warm sector. The formation of a thunderstorm is anticipated to happen early in the afternoon. Since inhibition is rapidly weakened, upper-level forcing should be scattered throughout the afternoon's warm sector. 60 to 70 knots, the warm region will be overspread by a mid-level jet that offers a very ideal supercell wind profile in the majority of the area.

The threat posed by initial supercells will include all severe weather threats, including the possibility of powerful tornadoes. Strong forcing and the unbounded warm sector indicate that upscale expansion is probably going to eventually occur into multiple squall lines or clusters. By the evening, when this more linear mode develops, there will be a greater chance of severe wind and line-embedded tornadoes.

The Storm Prediction Center has a section of Kentucky in a level 3 enhanced risk area. While most of the rest of Kentucky is in a level 2 slight risk area. I wouldn't be surprised to see the enhanced risk area expanded up to around I-64 and eastward to around I-75

 

Here is what the NAM 3k is showing as of this morning. The main threat timing is from 1-9 PM EDT. Everyone should pay attention to any individual cell that forms in front of the main system. These could become supercell storms and possibly produce a tornado. All severe weather modes will be on the table. 

 

Conference call update:

As I predicted, the level 3 enhanced risk area has been expanded almost to what I drew this morning. The rest of the state is under a level 2 slight risk area. I think the area will be expanded more tomorrow. 

 

 

It should be mentioned that multiple sub-regional areas, particularly across central/eastern portions of Kentucky and Tennessee, could receive multiple repeat rounds of severe storms on Tuesday. Thunderstorm development will likely occur rather early in the afternoon, as any cap will be quickly eroded and rising moisture overspreads the warm sector. Very favorable supercell wind profiles will exist across most of the region via the mid-level jet and a diurnally sustained 30+ kt low-level jet.

Strong tornadoes and other severe weather dangers will be a threat from the initial supercells, but as upscale expansion into many clusters takes place, a mixed convective mode should develop. By late afternoon and evening, as storms move east-southeast, very widespread destructive winds and a persistent mixed-mode tornado risk might occur.
 

They mentioned that those in Somerset and London should prepare for damaging winds that could blow debris from Friday's storm.

 

 

As I expected, the level 3 enhanced risk area has been expanded by the Storm Prediction Center. It now covers almost all of Kentucky south of I-64. The rest of the state is in a level 2 slight risk area.

Through this evening, multiple rounds of severe thunderstorms are predicted, with the Cumberland Plateau, Tennessee/Lower Ohio Valleys, and Mid/Deep South as their focal points. Large to isolated significant severe hail, as well as scattered to widespread damaging winds and tornadoes, some of which may be violent, are all possible.

by the middle of the afternoon. Dispersed supercells are expected to form during that period, both along and just ahead of the cold front that is moving eastward from the Lower OH Valley to the Ark-La-Miss. Although isolated major severe hail (up to about tennis ball size) will be feasible in the initial supercell corridor, the low mid-level lapse rates will be a limiting factor. As supercells develop, conditions should be favorable for a few powerful tornadoes, most likely from western or southern Kentucky. However, model guidance insists on upmarket expansion by early evening, which could result in several damaging wind swaths and small-scale bows. As storms move east-southeast into the southern Appalachians and Southeast, embedded supercells should continue to last far into the evening.

 

 

 

 

I forgot the future radar from the NAM3km. It is from 8 am EDT to 4 am EDT Wednesday.

 

Quick update I just received from NWS-Louisville:

A line of storms from late morning to mid-afternoon. If severe, pockets of damaging wind and brief spin-up tornadoes are the main threat.

There's not much confidence in how impactful this first wave will be. 

The second wave has a higher probability of severe storms this evening with all severe weather modes possible. 

Latest update:

There will be multiple waves from late morning through evening.

 Wave #1: late morning to mid-afternoon. Damaging wind and brief, spin-up tornadoes are the main threat. The main area of concern is along I-64, where the warm front is located.

Wave #2: A higher probability of severe storms this evening with all hazards in play. Damaging winds, tornadoes, and hail. Confidence is high.