A severe weather threat could unfold for portions of Kentucky next Tuesday. The surface low associated with the severe threat on Monday will continue
northeast and bring its associated cold front eastward across the Midwest and Great Lakes through the day Tuesday. Moderate to strong instability is forecast for the Ohio Valley. Some sections of Kentucky are showing CAPE readings upwards of 3000 J/kg. This could represent strong instability in those areas. CAPE, in essence, is fuel for thunderstorms. The higher the CAPE, the stronger the severe storms could be. Also, the dew points will be in the mid- to upper 60s, showing the atmosphere will be warm and unstable. 

The Storm Prediction Center already has much of Kentucky under a 15% chance for severe storms on Tuesday. This is the equivalent of a level 2 slight risk area. This far out could mean the potential for severe weather is pretty good. I'll be posting dates as we get closer. I can't predict anything on the timing and how severe it could be this far away, but everyone should keep their eye on the weather for the beginning of next week. 

 

 

Showers and storms are expected to form to our northwest and then move into our area on Tuesday before a cold front sweeps in. The primary risks could be isolated areas of damaging wind and hail in addition to locally heavy precipitation. Outdoor activities will be at risk from lightning. Localized flooding could result following heavy rainfall.

Another round of strong to severe storms could impact our region on Thursday. 

The front will remain more stationary as it moves westward across the Lower Ohio Valley and into the Ozarks. South of this front, dewpoints in the mid to upper 60s will exist, allowing for moderate to 
severe instability by the afternoon of Tuesday. Although deep-layer shear is not very powerful, it should be adequate for a few supercells and possibly some multicell clusters.