Severe Weather Alert for Friday evening 4/4/2025

Several clusters of severe storms are expected from central Texas across the ArkLaTex and into the lower Ohio Valley through tonight.

Given the fairly strong low-level shear and a relatively moist environment in the low levels, supercells will be capable of producing a few strong (EF2-EF3) tornadoes this afternoon into this evening in the moderate risk area. Otherwise, very large hail, up to baseball size, and damaging gusts will be possible with the supercells and embedded/organized storm clusters training along the front. 

Daytime heating in cloud breaks will contribute to MLCAPE of 2000-3000 J/kg and weakening convective inhibition by early/mid afternoon, when thunderstorm development is expected both along the surface front and in the open warm sector. Storm development will be most concentrated along the front.

More isolated storms will also be possible farther east in the warm sector from AR into western TN/KY by mid-late afternoon. Conditions will be favorable for supercells.

 These supercells will be capable of producing a few strong (EF2-EF3) tornadoes this afternoon into this evening in the moderate risk area. Otherwise, very large hail, to baseball size, and damaging gusts will be possible with the supercells and embedded/organized storm clusters training along the front.