Strong to Severe Storms possible to end the week.

[nWo]

A strong low-pressure system will move across the Ohio Valley Friday night through Sunday morning. Strong southerly winds are expected Friday through Saturday afternoon. Wind gusts in excess of 40 mph are likely. There is a possibility of multiple waves of strong to severe storms late Friday night through Saturday evening.

 

 

[nWo]

I have gained access to some more model ensembles for both the Euro and GFS. 

They are both in pretty good agreement about the strength and placement of the pretty strong surface low associated with a negatively tilted trough. On both of the ensemble models, you can see several numbers; these are the different ensemble members are saying where the low may be. The large red number is the average of all of the ensemble members. Both are showing a low pressure at around 975 mb. While we won't see it, this is approximately the same pressure as a Category 2 hurricane. But this will account for the possible high wind gusts. 

 

 

The one fly in the ointment will be the dewpoints. Mainly for Friday evening. For Friday, most of the dew points will be in the mid-50s. While you can still see severe weather with these dew points, it should be in the 60s for a big severe weather event. That is why right now I think Saturday there may be a chance for a more significant severe weather event. Saturday could see dew points in the low to mid-60s.

Those in western Kentucky Friday evening should be alert because they will see the dew points in the 60s. That is why the Storm Prediction Center already has that area in a 30% chance for severe storms in the day 4 outlook.

 

 

 

I'm watching this closely and will post updates at least daily. I'll go to more than one post as we get a better read on this possible event.

 

 

 

 

[nWo]

A strongly forced squall line is expected to develop along a surface dryline as the mid/upper jet impinges on the Ozarks vicinity by late afternoon or early evening. Conditions will be such as to maintain this squall line into the nighttime hours.

Strong daytime heating and mixing of the boundary layer ahead of the squall line will further promote swaths of severe/damaging gusts, some of which may be greater than 65 kt. While moisture will be somewhat of a limiting factor, tornadoes will also be possible.

 

The Storm Prediction Center has a section west of a line from around Owensboro down to near Russellville under a level 3 Enhanced Risk area. East of that line to just east of I-65 is under a level 2 Slight Risk.