We might be in for a crazy roller coaster to begin March. On Monday, there may be a little amount of snow accumulation, and by late Tuesday or early Wednesday, there may be strong to severe storms. Though things will change in less than a week, I wanted to give you a heads-up.

A clipper system may go over Kentucky late Sunday or early Monday, resulting in some brief accumulations of light snow. A low-pressure system is then expected to be close to the Kansas/Missouri border on Tuesday. A warm front will lift into Kentucky as it passes over the northern Ohio Valley and goes northeast. Warm, humid Gulf air will enter our state as a result. Tuesday night and early Wednesday could see temperatures increase into the mid- to upper-sixties. Temperatures in western Kentucky could approach 70 degrees on Tuesday evening. Strong to severe storms will be fueled by this plus dew point in the low to mid-60s.

A cold front will move into this setup, and this could be the trigger for the possible storms. I will be watching this and posting updates as we get closer.

 

 

 

 

 

 

There are signs that a major severe weather event is becoming more likely to occur late Tuesday into early Wednesday. A section of Kentucky west of I-65 is already at 15% risk of severe storms, according to the Storm Prediction Center's day 5 assessment. The greatest risk is a 30% risk of severe storms in western Kentucky.

 

 

An upper-level trough will become negatively tilted as it joins a weaker trough to the north. This is an indication of an escalating system. Tornadoes and severe thunderstorms could result from this. There are indications that a powerful surface low is forming. The negative slanted trough is indicated by the black line.

 

 

Jet stream winds out of the south and will wrap around the low at approximately 100+ knots. Winds just above service will be out of the southwest around 80-90 knots. This difference in speed and direction could cause any individual cell to become a mesocyclone or rotating storm. Dew points in western Kentucky will be in the 60s before the storms enter that area. This is the reason the Storm Prediction Center has western Kentucky under a 30% risk area. I fully expect that area to grow and include more of Kentucky. 

Showers and storms will break in the warm sector of the system in the Ohio Valley. Some of the more powerful storms could produce cloud-to-ground lightning, hail, and tornadoes. 

At this time, it appears this will be a nocturnal event, so everyone should be watching this as we get closer. 

 

 

I wanted to give everyone a quick update. The risk of severe weather has decreased for Kentucky. From the area of Hardinsburg to Williamsburg, a portion of Kentucky southwest of a line is designated as a level 1 marinal risk area by the Storm Prediction Center. People who live in that risk area may experience storms with damaging hail and winds. There may become a localized tornado threat. Late Tuesday afternoon into early Wednesday appears to be the time frame.