Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
100 AM EST Wed Nov 13 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Central and Western Caribbean Sea (AL99):
Showers and thunderstorms continue in associated with a broad area 
of low pressure over the central Caribbean Sea.  Environmental 
conditions appear conducive for development, and a tropical 
depression is likely to form within the next couple of days while 
the system moves slowly westward into the western Caribbean Sea.  
Afterward, further development is likely while the disturbance 
meanders over the western Caribbean Sea through the weekend.  The 
system is forecast begin moving slowly northwestward by early next 
week.  Interests across the western and northwestern Caribbean Sea 
should monitor the progress of this system.  Regardless of 
development, heavy rains are expected over Jamaica and portions of 
Haiti during the next day or so.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

 

 

 

 

 

This is now Potential Cyclone 19

1. Through early next week, heavy rainfall will cause significant, 
life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides across portions of 
Central America, particularly Honduras, Belize, El Salvador, 
eastern Guatemala, and western Nicaragua.

2. The disturbance is forecast to be near hurricane strength when
it moves near the eastern coast of Honduras and northeastern
Nicaragua on Friday and Saturday.  Hurricane and tropical storm
conditions are possible over portions of that area.

3. The system is forecast to approach Belize and the Yucatan
Peninsula of Mexico at or near hurricane strength by early next week
where there is a risk of dangerous storm surge and damaging winds.
Residents in these areas should monitor the latest forecast updates
and ensure that they have their hurricane plan in place.

4. It is too soon to determine what impacts the system could bring
to portions of the eastern Gulf of Mexico, including Florida, the
Florida Keys, and Cuba during the middle portion of next week.
Residents in these areas should regularly monitor updates to the
forecast.

 

Invest 99L is now Tropical Storm Sara.

At 700 PM EST (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Sara was 
located near latitude 15.9 North, longitude 84.0 West. Sara is 
moving toward the west near 10 mph (17 km/h). A westward motion at a 
slower forward speed is expected during the next couple of days. A 
slow west-northwestward motion is forecast by late Saturday. On the 
forecast track, the center of Sara will move close to the northern 
coast of Honduras during the next couple of days and approach the 
coast of Belize on Sunday.

Data from the Air Force Hurricane Hunters indicate that maximum 
sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Some 
strengthening is possible during the next couple of days if the 
center of Sara remains offshore of the northern coast of Honduras.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km)
from the center, primarily to the north of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure based on aircraft data is 998 
mb (29.47 inches).

 

 

 

The good news is that Sara appears to be no longer a hurricane/tropical storm threat. It has spent enough time over the ucatan penisula that it has completely dissapated. It could still cause heavy rainfall to areas along the Gulf Coast where it eventually goes.