By next weekend, another storm might produce a hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico. I am going to watch this all this week. It might not be as powerful as Hurricane Helene, according to the GFS, but only time will tell.

 

An area of low pressure could form over the western Caribbean Sea by 
the middle of next week. Environmental conditions are expected to be 
conducive for slow development thereafter, while the system moves 
generally northwestward, potentially entering the Gulf of Mexico by 
the end of next week. 
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. 
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

 

Saturday morning update.

We may see another hurricane hit portions of Florida next weekend.  It is forecast to form almost in the same area as Helene did. As of now, it is showing it may be a cat. 1 hurricane at landfall.

 Western Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico:
An area of low pressure could form over the western Caribbean Sea by 
the early part of next week.  Environmental conditions are expected 
to be conducive for additional development thereafter while the 
system moves generally northwestward, and a tropical depression 
could form by the middle of next week as the system enters the Gulf 
of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. 
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

 

This is the GEFS Ensemble model. It consists of thirty distinct model runs. There is only one model run in the GFS. I have never made a forecast using the GEFS Ensemble before. It illustrates the various directions a system could go and get stronger. It unmistakably depicts a system developing in the Caribbean Sea and subsequently advancing into the Gulf. Additionally, it indicates that the potential system might either progress toward a potential landfall in the United States or stall in the Gulf. It indicates that the system may become either cat 2 or cat 3. It also demonstrates how the storm might go in Helene's approximate path.

We'll just have to wait and see what might happen.

 

The first full week of October may bring additional intense rains to Kentucky. Maybe a tropical system will develop in the Gulf and make its way up to Kentucky. It is predicted that a cold front will move in from the plains and cross Kentucky. They might come together to bring eastern Kentucky substantial rains. The speed at which the cold front moves through Kentucky will determine this. It might theoretically force the potential tropical system to move in a more easterly direction. The majority of the tropical precipitation is likely to bypass Kentucky if this occurs. However, if it approaches more slowly than expected, it may indicate that more of Kentucky will be covered by the system.

 Northwestern Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico:
Disorganized showers and thunderstorms located over the southwestern 
Caribbean Sea are associated with a trough of low pressure. 
Environmental conditions could support some gradual development of 
this system, and a tropical depression could form towards the end of 
this week or this weekend while it moves generally northwestward 
over the northwestern Caribbean Sea and into the Gulf of Mexico. 
Interests along the U.S. Gulf Coast should continue to monitor the 
progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. 
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.