The remnants of Francine are expected to reach Kentucky around Thursday night. Over two inches of rain might fall by Friday due to heavy precipitation and potential thunderstorms, mostly in western Kentucky. There will be an additional inch possible along I-75. Thunderstorms will also be possible on Friday.

 

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
327 AM EDT Tue Sep 10 2024
Day 3
Valid 12Z Thu Sep 12 2024 - 12Z Fri Sep 13 2024

...A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL EXISTS FOR THE MID-SOUTH...

Mid-South/Southeast...
Francine is expected to be fully extratropical, with a well-
developed comma head and trailing front. Guidance suggests that MU
CAPE will be modest, 250-500 J/kg. Effective bulk shear should
continue to be sufficient for convective organization where enough
instability develops/exists.  Precipitable water values remain
near 2", so hourly rain totals up to 1-2" should be possible, which
would be most problematic in urban areas and initially beneficial
elsewhere. This region has been quite dry lately. With the volume
of rain expected, and the concept of this being on the cusp of a
flash flood and longer duration flood event, kept the Slight Risk
area which showed minimal change from continuity. Across the
Southeast, there is a risk of training convection along Francine's
cold front, but its progression is expected to limit issues. Still,
hourly rain totals to 2" and local amounts to 4" should be
possible.

 

Francine is expected to strengthen into a hurricane later today.

 

Francine is now a hurricane.

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1203 PM EDT Wed Sep 11 2024
Day 3
Valid 12Z Fri Sep 13 2024 - 12Z Sat Sep 14 2024

...A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL EXISTS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE MID-SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST...

A broad Marginal Risk of excessive rainfall exists for portions of
the Mid-South and Southeast with the weakening extratropical/Post-
Tropical Cyclone Francine. The guidance isn't showing a great deal
of overlap in potential heavy rain areas, so left the risk area
as-in, but in theory, portions of northern FL and the Southeast,
possibly including the southernmost Appalachians, have potential
for hourly rain totals to 2.5" and local amounts of 5" as enough
instability and low- level inflow/effective bulk shear exists for
possible issues. Should the guidance align on this idea QPF-wise
further, a Slight Risk could be added in later cycles.