BGP Severe Weather Alert 7/31/24

[nWo]

The BGP Severe Day will likely continue into Thursday as portions of Kentucky could see strong to severe storms today into tomorrow. 

Showers and thunderstorms are expected to move across the outlook area again today and tonight. Strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible. Torrential rainfall, damaging wind gusts, and intense lightning will be the main threats with the storms.

A corridor of maximized low-level moisture will be located from Illinois southeastward into central Kentucky, where strong instability is expected to develop by afternoon. Although there is some uncertainty, several model solutions suggest that an MCS (a collection of thunderstorms that act as a system) will develop and move southeastward along the instability gradient this afternoon and evening. Forecast soundings in the areas show that conditions will be favorable for linear development. A severe threat will be likely. If a bowing line segment can develop and mature, then wind damage would be likely along the leading edge. The severe threat should continue into the evening due to the strong instability.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[nWo]

I just received the following from the NWS-Louisville office:

 

Quote

Good morning, 

The active strom pattern continues, with another Slight Risk (level 2 of 5) across the region for the possibility of scattered strong to severe storms later today. Like previous days, damaging winds, torrential rain, and intense lightning are the main threats. 

For today:

➔ Additional multiple rounds of storms possible today.

➔ Severe Threat Window: Daytime and overnight hours

➔ Scattered strong to severe storms may produce damaging winds, torrential rainfall, and intense lightning. Localized flooding is also possible

 

Thursday:

➔ Multiple rounds of storms will be possible

➔ Greatest threat in the Slight Risk (level 2), but a few strong to severe storms could be possible across southern Indiana and Kentucky too.

➔ Scattered strong to severe storms may produce damaging winds, intense lightning, and localized flooding issues.