This afternoon and tonight, there is a chance of scattered strong to severe storms over portions of the central and northern Plains, as well as during the day over portions of the Midwest and Ohio Valley.

Models suggest a tendency toward clustering and possible collection of thunderstorms redevelopment by early evening, with a renewed threat of damaging wind. A couple of supercells could also evolve, with the attendant threat of isolated hail and a tornado or two. A level 2 Slight Risk Area has been added from southern Illinois and Indiana into central Kentucky, where confidence is currently greatest in some severe threats from both morning convection and later redevelopment. Some adjustments will likely be needed based on the evolution of early-day convection.

 

 

 

I just received this from the NWS-Louisville office:

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Good morning! A couple of waves of organized storms are forecast today and tonight. Ongoing widely scattered showers/storms this morning are not expected to be severe. A line of storms moving in from the northwest is expected to impact our area in the early to mid afternoon hours today. This wave may bring a few damaging wind reports as well as heavy rain.

New storms are forecast to develop this evening and into the overnight. This wave has the potential for damaging wind gusts and even a few tornadoes. Flash flood potential is localized, but still would not be surprised to see a few locations see 3-4" of rainfall by Tuesday morning.

Here is a link to the latest briefing slides, https://www.weather.gov/media/lmk/DssPacket.pdf, which has more details. Stay tuned to the latest updates as the day goes on, because how the first wave evolves will impact the second one.

 

 

Afternoon update:

➔ Storms will develop in Indiana tonight and push southward into early Tuesday AM

➔ Severe Threat Window: 11 p.m.- 5 am EDT

➔ Scattered strong to severe storms may produce damaging winds and a few tornadoes

➔ Localized flooding is possible