It now appears we could be in store for a multi-day severe weather event Monday evening into the afternoon on Tuesday.

 

Western Kentucky:

the best chance for strong to severe storms arriving Monday evening and overnight ahead of a cold front. Damaging winds and a few spin-up tornadoes look to be the main concerns. Much colder air arrives behind the cold front, with some frost potential Wednesday night and especially Thursday night. Temperatures can also fall below freezing locally, especially near the I-64 corridor.

Central/South Central Kentucky:

Strong to severe storms are possible late Monday evening through Tuesday afternoon. The best chance for severe storms Monday night will be across southern Indiana, where damaging winds, large hail, spin-up tornadoes, and localized flooding are possible. Confidence in the location and timing of strong storms on Tuesday is lower, but damaging winds, large hail, and tornadoes are all possible.

 

Tuesday update.

Everyone should review their emergency action plan as soon as possible. The majority of Kentucky now faces a considerably greater risk of severe weather. The Storm Prediction Center has issued a level 3 Enhanced Risk Area for the majority of Kentucky

A severe threat is expected on Tuesday from the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys eastward into the Mid-Atlantic, and southward into the central Gulf Coast states. Wind damage and isolated large hail will be possible across a broad area. The tornado threat is expected to be greatest from central Kentucky east-northeastward into West Virginia.

Ohio and Tennessee Valleys/Central Appalachians/Mid-Atlantic... An upper-level trough is forecast to move into the mid- to upper Mississippi Valley on Tuesday, as a cold front advances eastward into the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. A moist airmass will be in place ahead of the front, with surface dewpoints generally in the 60s F. As instability increases across the warm sector during the day, widespread convective initiation is expected. Numerous thunderstorms are forecast to develop across the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys, with a large MCS (collection of thunderstorms) moving eastward into the central Appalachians by evening.

While supercells will be possible, the more favored mode could be multicellular, as several line segments develop and organize during the afternoon. Wind damage will be associated with the faster-moving line segments, while large hail will be most common with rotating cells. Supercells or the more intense QLCS (line of thunderstorms ahead of a cold front) circulations could develop a tornado threat. The greatest tornado threat is forecast to be from eastern Kentucky into West Virginia, where a low-level jet should become focused in the late afternoon and early evening.

 

 

 

 

This afternoon through Tuesday, the area will see periodic showers and thunderstorms brought on by a powerful spring storm system. The majority of the threat from the most widespread severe weather is predicted to occur from after midnight on Monday night through Tuesday afternoon, even if isolated to scattered severe storms are probable tonight evening through Monday, especially in southern Indiana and north central Kentucky. There will be a chance of severe hazards, particularly from late Monday through Tuesday.

Make a plan in case of severe weather. Check the latest forecasts. I will post an update early Monday morning.