This will only be a quick overview. There seems to be a possibility of thunderstorms on Thursday afternoon and into the evening, with some of them perhaps intense to severe. Since nothing is certain this far off, I just wanted to let you know in case something does come to pass. Late on Thursday morning, Kentucky should see a few isolated showers or storms move in from the northwest. In the afternoon, they might get stronger. For a sizable portion of Kentucky, mostly west of I-75, dewpoints might reach the mid-60s. The temperature might be in the low to mid-seventies. The EHI indicates that, prior to the system that may produce the storms, circumstances may be conducive to the creation of strong to severe storms.

 

 

 

 

 

 

A level 1 Marginal Risk Area has been declared by the Storm Prediction Center for portions of western Kentucky for Thursday.

 

 

 

On Thursday, there may be some strong to severe storms over parts of western Kentucky.There is a chance that the activity that was first over the Mid MS Valley will interact with the warm front moving northward across the area, moving from high to surface-based—or at least near-surface-based—as it goes eastward. Forecast confidence is limited by uncertainties about the front's position and the way convection moves out of the Mid-MS Valley. Nevertheless, upcoming data will be carefully examined, and upgrades might be taken into account in upcoming outlooks.

 

 

For some areas of western Kentucky, the serious threat has intensified. There is a chance that the activity, which was first over the Mid Mississippi Valley, will eventually move from elevated to surface-based—or at least near-surface-based—as it interacts with the warm front moving northward across the area. There may be a chance of an isolated tornado as well as updraft organization under certain circumstances. Stronger storms or thunderstorm clusters may also produce huge hail and damaging gusts.